NOVAK:   President Bush today said broadening the coalition in Iraq will bring about more security. He was talking about Europe. But do you suppose it might occur to the Democrats that they could join, too, instead of sitting on the sidelines and whining? In the CROSSFIRE are Democrat consultant Mark Mellman and conservative strategist Bay Buchanan. She's president of the American Cause. 
BEGALA:   Thank you all both for joining us. Bay, just to put it in perspective, this is not just about 16 words, one sentence in one speech. Let me put it into context, because there are at least four major claims that our president made in leading us into war that are now highly dubious. Let me put them on the board and just go through them quickly. First, most famously, the president did say that Saddam Hussein purchased -- tried to purchase uranium in Africa. Even the White House admits now that that was false. More recently, we've learned that his claim that they could launch a chemical or biological attack in 45 minutes was not approved by the CIA. The question of his arming terrorism, the CIA described as highly disputed. And his al Qaeda ties were, by American intelligence, called highly disputed. Why did our president mislead us time after time after time about a matter of war? 
BUCHANAN:   The president has never misled the American people. I take umbrage with that statement immediately. The president of the United States, when he spoke at the State of the Union, that's when he converted me. I was opposed to the war up until that time. He spoke from his heart. And he made a very clear and strong case that his concern was that this country was threatened by Saddam Hussein, that he does have weapons of mass destruction, or capable of creating them, and that that posed a really -- a threat to the safety of the American people. And it's his responsibility to take that action. I supported that. It was his decision, not ours. He heard all the evidence one way or the other, and he made his decision. The crux of his arguments is weapons of mass destruction. And all intelligence for the last 10 years strongly supports that to this day. So I don't think you can hold him responsible for them not having it. He felt they had it. The intelligence of Europe said they had it. Our intelligence has, for 10 years, said that he had it. And so he moved ahead in order to eliminate a threat. That's his job. 
NOVAK:   Mark Mellman, the Democratic National Committee is running an ad quoting the president in his State of the Union. And let's show what the ad shows right up on the screen. 
BUSH:   Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa. 
NOVAK:   Wait a minute. That's only 10 words, not 16 words. Let me play what the president really said. 
BUSH:   The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa. 
NOVAK:   The Democratic National Committee ad eliminated "the British government has learned that." That's what they used to accused Joe McCarthy of doing. Do you condone that? 
MELLMAN:   Do I condone eliminating -- no. 
NOVAK:   No, but do you condone eliminating those words? 
MELLMAN:   I object strenuously to eliminating the words, "the British government said." But, frankly, it's totally beside the point. The reality... 
NOVAK:   Why? 
MELLMAN:   Because the reality is, there's a whole series of claims that the president made that don't seem to be backed up by the facts. And the bottom line is this, Bob. One of two things are true. Either the president misled us about those weapons of mass destruction, or those weapons of mass destruction were there and they're now gone, disappeared, because this administration didn't have a plan to secure the weapons of mass destruction. They had a plan to secure the oil fields.    They had a plan to secure the Oil Ministry. But they apparently didn't have a plan to secure those weapons. 
BEGALA:   In fact, Bay, this is becoming increasingly a political liability for the president. Frankly, we're talking about it here. It seems to me, his greatest claim on the affection of the American people has always been the argument that he puts forward that he's a straight shooter, he's a truth-teller. He went around all the country and said: I know what the meaning of is is. Well, I know what the meaning of a bad poll is. And in the CNN/Gallup poll out today, the Gallup Organization asked the American people a simple question: Is Bush a leader you can trust? The majority of Americans today say no. 
BUCHANAN:   You know, I think you Democrats make a terrible mistake here. Sure, you guys have pounded him and pounded him. And he's fumbled the ball, the way he has explained this issue. He fumbled the ball. But the American people want him to succeed. They supported him. He went against the polls. It's a leader to go against the polls. And he preserved... 
BEGALA:   He went against the truth. 
MELLMAN:   With 70 percent, 60, 70... 
BUCHANAN:   Before this war -- before he initiated this war, the American people said, we're against it. And he said, I have to take this 
MELLMAN:   Bay, with all due respect, that was true of George Bush the first in the Gulf War. 
BUCHANAN:   No, no. You are wrong. 
MELLMAN:   There's been a majority in favor of invading Iraq for 12 years. So he wasn't... 
BUCHANAN:   No, no, it reversed. They reversed it right before. But let me just add here. I'll tell you where the key is. The American people know this man. They trust him as the commander in chief. 
BEGALA:   But they don't    That's my question. 
BUCHANAN:   You're wrong. When he gets out there and explains again and again, he's lost the momentum 
MELLMAN:   That's the problem. He's got to explain it again and again and again, because the explanation keeps changing again and again and again. 
BUCHANAN:   No, he doesn't. You guys don't -- you guys do not want to run on the issue of national security. You're foolhardy, because the horses in your corral cannot stand    ... that man when it comes to national security. 
NOVAK:   Let me suggest what the problem -- let me suggest what the problem is. And I'll tell you, from that same CNN/"TIME" poll. In March, 65 percent of the people -- we'll put that up -- thought that it was right to go to war, now 61 percent, insignificant that -- the American people still support going on war on Iraq. What they're responding to is the pounding from Paul Begala and James Carville, isn't it? 
MELLMAN:   Paul is a very powerful guy. There's no question about that.    But the reality here is pretty straightforward, which is, people think the decision was the right decision, but there are three problems this president faces. First of all, he may not have been honest. The administration certainly wasn't honest with the American people. And the public doesn't like that. Second, this president had no plan to win the peace. And that is evident every single day in Iraq with every single casualty, with every single failure to put a government together in Iraq. It's clear that this White House had no plan to win the peace. 
BUCHANAN:   Mark... 
MELLMAN:   The third problem he's got is on the economy. And, yes, people think it's in deep trouble. So the reality is, yes, people think it was the wise decision to go to war, but the reality is, his numbers are declining. People don't think he's really trustworthy anymore. And they have good reason to think that. It's a sad commentary. 
BUCHANAN:   Mark, you're completely wrong on those two issues, the first two points. You're utterly wrong. He has never deceived the American people. Just because Democrats have claimed he has -- he may have gotten bad intelligence. There's no question. Should we investigate the intelligence and make certain that it's solid, what the president of the United States gets? Yes. The president has never deceived the American people. And, secondly, he will -- he sees -- sure, wars are predictable. He has plans to try to put this thing together, to try to rebuild this country, so we can get out of there. And he's moving quickly and he's changing it, as he learns problems are there. And you can see, in six months from now, as we start turning this over to Iraqis, you guys are going to have nothing to run on. 
BEGALA:   My friend Mark Mellman, Democratic consultant, Bay Buchanan, conservative strategist, I'm sorry to end it there. It's a terrific debate. Believe me, it's not the last we will hear from this. But, after a quick break, Wolf Blitzer will check the latest news headlines. And then CROSSFIRE will make a little news of its own. Our colleague and co-host Tucker Carlson will report live from Africa with an update on Al Sharpton's Liberian peace mission. Later: A bird-watcher fires back his own thoughts on how we can identify a bird named George W. Bush. Stay with us.
