ANNOUNCER:   CROSSFIRE. On the left, James Carville and Paul Begala. On the right, Robert Novak and Tucker Carlson. In the CROSSFIRE tonight -- after a day of deadly violence in Israel, is Yasser Arafat a terrorist? And should the Secretary of State meet with him? The week in politics, including a priceless moment with James Traficant. 
TRAFICANT:   Yeah, I was trying to kick their ass. 
ANNOUNCER:   The lawnmower leftie and the bow-tie brawler are about to come to blows. All tonight on CROSSFIRE. From the George Washington University, Paul Begala and Tucker Carlson. 
CARLSON:   Good evening, and welcome to the new CROSSFIRE, coming to you live from the George Washington University here in downtown Washington, D.C. Tonight, what does a congressman do after being convicted of 10 felonies? We'll look at what's next, if anything, for Ohio's Jim Traficant. Plus, two of our favorite political consultants are here for a political roundup. But first, a day of deadly developments in the Middle East. A suicide bomber killed herself and six others at a crowded Jerusalem marketplace today. More than 60 people were injured, many severely. The attack happened not long after Secretary of State Colin Powell finished a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. Now, Powell was scheduled to meet tomorrow with Yasser Arafat, but that has been postponed until Sunday. Here's what the White House had to say. 
ARI FLEISCHER, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY:   The president, as I indicated earlier, believes that Yasser Arafat -- and he's publicly come out and condemned today's attack -- that this is terrorism. This is murder. And Yasser Arafat needs to renounce it, and renounce it soon. 
CARLSON:   Before we bring on our first guest, we want to get more detail and perspective from CNN's Wolf Blitzer, who joins us live from Jerusalem. Wolf, you've been covering the Middle East for 20 years. Do you see any hope at this point, at least in the near future, of bridging the gap? Or does it seem increasingly hopeless there? 
BLITZER:   It seems right now very, very hopeless. But there's always a little bit of hope that there could be a cease-fire arranged. Remember, both the Israelis as well as the Palestinians have enormous stakes involved, first and foremost their very existence in large respects. And they both depend a great deal on the goodwill of the United States. Neither side wants to see Secretary of State Colin Powell, who has now invested a great deal of his prestige, his own credibility, leave here empty-handed, without even a cease-fire. So, there's still some hope. And even as things look rather bleak, there's a little opening left for some sort of cease-fire. 
BEGALA:   Wolf, it's Paul Begala. I'm curious, also as somebody -- you've probably spent as much time in that region as anybody. You just got there today, just before the bombing occurred. Just what was the feel on the streets of Jerusalem today? 
BLITZER:   Very sad, very eerie. It was supposed to be bustling. Late Friday afternoon just before the Sabbath, people are normally getting their work done, moving on, getting ready for a day of rest here in Jerusalem. But right after that bombing occurred, around 4:15 local time in the afternoon, the streets got really, really empty. And people are afraid. They're afraid to go out. They're afraid to go to malls, the restaurants, the coffee shops. They want to stay in their homes. I was only here for a little while and somebody told me that the video rental shops are doing gangbuster business, because people just are afraid to go outside. It's a nerve-wracking ordeal. 
BEGALA:   CNN's Wolf Blitzer, thank you for that report, and take good care. Tucker, this morning I woke up thinking that Colin Powell was doing the right thing by meeting with Yasser Arafat. And it's a controversial decision. I think he made the right decision. After this bombing today, I don't know what he gains by meeting with this terrorist. 
CARLSON:   Well, you're a fickle guy, Paul, as we know, but look ... 
BEGALA:     a new round of terrorism. 
CARLSON:   ... nobody is defending Yasser Arafat. But the question is, did he himself launch this new round of terrorism? It's -- he's not above it, it goes without saying. But the question is, does he benefit from it? No, he doesn't. So that may mean that Yasser Arafat is not in control of his own supporters. That's probably true. But the question still remains, if not Yasser Arafat, who else? You can't have a dialog with one person. 
BEGALA:   Well, first off, let's put the blame where it belongs. There's an organization called Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade. It is affiliated with Fatah, which is Arafat's wing of the Palestinian movement. He ought to be held accountable for it. Either he did order it, in which case he's continuing his history as a terrorist, or he's not in control, and so why negotiate with somebody who's not in control? 
CARLSON:   Because there is no one else. And he is ... 
BEGALA:   Well, we could negotiate with nobody then. 
CARLSON:   ... the only person you can negotiate with at this point, horrible and homicidal as he is and has been. But anyway, we will have a full debate on the turmoil in the Middle East a bit later in the program. But first, it's Friday. That, of course, means it's time for "Pol Pot," our political potpourri segment. Joining us, two of our favorite battle-scarred political consultants -- on the left, Democratic strategist Peter Fenn, and on the right, Republican strategist Alex Castellanos.    It's been an enormous news week, as you know, but lost -- we hope not -- in the shuffle of all that's going on in the Middle East, there was the Jim Traficant trial. 
FENN:   Who? No ... 
CARLSON:   Now, in addition to being a convicted felon, he's a...    ... Democrat. He was also a long-time fixture of, guest on CROSSFIRE. We dug up in the archives an exchange we had with him lately, sort of telling now, looking back at it. Here it is. This is Congressman Jim Traficant of Ohio, Democrat. 
TRAFICANT:   What do you mean, be honest? 
CARLSON:   ... all my life ... 
TRAFICANT:   If you're going to talk to me, you're going to be honest. What the hell are you saying be honest for? 
CARLSON:   I want you to be candid in response to the following question. What do you think ... 
TRAFICANT:   I've been candid enough, quite frankly. 
CARLSON:   ... what do you think the odds are that you'll wind up in an orange jump-suit behind bars? Do you think you're going to go to jail? 
TRAFICANT:   Well, most of the TV and analysts say I have about a one in 20 million shot. 
CARLSON:   What do you think? 
TRAFICANT:   I'll tell you what I think. I think my shot's better than that, and all I know is this. I'm going to get in their face. I don't like them. I don't like what they've done to our country. I don't like how they scare people. I don't like how they intimidate people. Judges appointed to a life-time term are scared to death of these people. These bureaucrats run America. And Congress better take America back for the American people. So I'm just a son of a truck driver, and I'm going to try and kick their ass. That's candid as I could be. 
CARLSON:   Well, that is very candid, and ... 
TRAFICANT:   That's candid. 
CARLSON:   Well,  , you can see why we liked Congressman Traficant as CROSSFIRE guest. It's a little more confusing why the Democratic Party liked him for nine terms. Now, yesterday, Gephardt comes out and says it's time to resign from the house. But the question is, after lo these many years of evidence defending Nazi war criminals, wearing a jump-suit like that on television for another, why did the Democratic Party keep this guy so long? 
FENN:   I can tell you ... 
CARLSON:   You know the answer. Be honest. 
FENN:   ... we campaigned against him in the last election, and the primary challenged him, and did not win, unfortunately. We may have been able to escape some of this mess. But I'll tell you, he came in as a corrupt clown, and he's going out as a corrupt clown. 
CARLSON:   But you're one of those who   ... 
FENN:   And you know something, here is a guy who was never part ... 
CARLSON:   ... leadership say that? 
FENN:   ... look. He was never part and parcel of the Democratic Party. He didn't vote with us. He voted for the other speaker, Mr. Hastert last time. So he's in your lap, now, baby. Now, he who laughs last is the way I look at this.  
BEGALA:   Jim Traficant joins Gary Condit as the other favorite Bush Democrat. The two guys who voted with Bush more than anybody else in my party -- Gary Condit and Jim Traficant. So you're welcome to him. 
CASTELLANOS:   Well, I think there's no doubt, first of all, that he's going to get elected prison president ...    ... that's what he can do there. But look, the only crime that Traficant has committed that Gephardt can't forgive, is that he voted for Hastert. He voted for a Republican. It -- the same Traficant for years, and the Democrats had no problem with him all that time. But now it's all about politics. It's about control of the House. So finally the Democrats have the courage to do the right thing when it helps them politically. 
BEGALA:     report that they ran somebody against him in the primary, and he tried to join your party. He went and voted for Hastert. He voted for all of Bush's agenda, so he's a Republican. 
CASTELLANOS:   Well, I think we all agree, it's time for him to go. But it's interesting that the Democrats only find their voice when it's politically beneficial for them. 
FENN:   No, now Alex.    That's the biggest bunch of nonsense. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it is a duck. It's a Republican duck. But here ... 
CARLSON:   Well, he'll run with his orange jumpsuit and he'll call himself an independent. 
CASTELLANOS:   It wasn't about right and wrong when Bill Clinton got his law license yanked. It wasn't about right and wrong when Traficant was up there for 10 years doing the same thing. But it happens to be about right and wrong now, when he votes for a Republican for speaker of the House. 
BEGALA:   This segment, though, is about ...    ... it's about right and left. And we just got a new poll back from CNN-USA Today. And I want you to take a look at it, Alex. This is what you do for a living, paying millions to win elections for these Republicans. But even you, skilled as you are, I think is going to see your party go down this year in November. The USA Today-CNN Gallop poll -- let me put it up here -- the election for Congress, Democrats 50, Republicans 43. That is a seven point margin of victory, meaning the Democrats stand to retake the House. Welcome, Speaker Gephardt. Start sucking up. 
CASTELLANOS:   I'd like you to put that poll a little, up a little more, because we're going to look so smart when we keep control of the House. Actually, as you know, Paul, there isn't one national election for the House. It happens in little districts all around the country. And what's happened, as we all know, is that in Rust Belt states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio, Democrat seats have been lost, while Republicans are gaining seat in the sunbelt. So that's where the real shift is, ... 
BEGALA:    , how did they go in the presidential elections? 
CASTELLANOS:   That's with Democratic members of Congress, though. You know that delegation makeup in those states, though, right. They are Democratic states, basically, when it comes to running for Congress, and they're losing seats and we're gaining them in the sunbelt. 
FENN:   Now, Republic spin here -- look. You know, six months ago, the Republicans said, oh, we're going to clean their clock in redistricting. We're going to pick up 10 or 12 seats. We're not even going to get six, baby. I mean, you know, you thought you were going to make it in Pennsylvania. Funny thing, the courts didn't like it.  You think you're going to make it in Texas -- Texas, the president's home state. Big win for the Republicans. Oops! Courts didn't like it. Sorry. Bye-bye. 
CARLSON:   Wait, can I just -- I'm sorry. Now that we're whipping out our polls, Paul was a little bit misleading in only putting up part of that, see.    There was a ... 
BEGALA:   Nice smile, too. Look at that. 
CARLSON:   Seventy-six percent of Americans think Bush is marvelous, 60 percent of Democrats do. Now Alex is right. This is not going to be a national election. A few mid-terms are, except '94 when Clinton -- there's a   Clinton. But to the extent it's a national election in a midterm, it's going to be about the president, correct? And the president looks pretty great. 
FENN:   You know, your logic is amazing, Tucker.    First of all, he's down from his 88 popularity to 76, so the trend for us is right. But second point is ... 
CARLSON:   Down to 76 percent. Whoo! 
FENN:   ... look. You think the president's going to be at 76 percent in November. Doubt it. 
CARLSON:   If you ...    ... say 76 is part of a losing trend, ... 
FENN:   Look, if the numbers are so bad for you right now in a match-up in the House of Representatives, think of what they're going to be like in November, when his numbers aren't in the 80s or upper 70s. 
CASTELLANOS:     let me ask you the question before you give me the answer. 
FENN:   ... issues, that's the problem   ... 
BEGALA:   In the "Wall Street Journal" today, in the Washington Wire, my pal, Matthew Dowd, he's the head of polling for Bush, those of you who believe those lies and said Bush in the polls should know Bush spends about a million bucks a year polling, and that's fine.    The guy who coordinates it is Matthew Dowd. 
CASTELLANOS:   We're just listening to the people. 
BEGALA:   Absolutely.    I'm all for it. I'm just not for lying about it. Sorry. Matthew was spinning "The Wall Street Journal" today saying, well we expect to come down far lower than 76. He said, we'll be at 60, maybe better than the 50, where we were when September 11th happened. But he thinks that Bush is going to continue to trend down. Now he's preparing the terrain so that it doesn't look like the collapse that we know is coming, right? 
CASTELLANOS:   Well, compared to where President Clinton was, say two years into his term, the only state he could go back to was Arkansas at that point. I think President Bush's numbers are holding up pretty well. I think the country sees that it's -- you know, politics aside for two seconds -- President Bush is doing a pretty good job, and he is kind of necessary to our national security right now. And we've seen a preview of the election. It happened in New York City where a strong leader, tough leader, got on TV and endorsed a candidate, and that Republican became mayor of New York. If President Bush does the same thing in this election, I think Republicans have a lot to look forward to. 
BEGALA:   Seriously, now come on. We know that ...    ... actually coat-tails don't work, popular or not, but you really want Bush ...  
CASTELLANOS:   And they didn't work in New York? I'm sorry. So Bloomberg lost? I missed that. 
BEGALA:   We're going to have to take a break.      we'll come right back to you. We're going to take a break. 
