CARVILLE:   If preelection day polls were right, Wisconsin's going to be John Kerry's latest victory. Will it also be Howard Dean's last stand? In the CROSSFIRE, Kerry campaign senior adviser Tad Devine, along with Dean media adviser Steve McMahon.  
NOVAK:   Steve McMahon, on February 5, which wasn't that long ago, Howard Dean sent an e-mail to supporters. Your boss sent an e-mail, saying: "The entire race has come down to this. We must win Wisconsin. A win there will carry us to the big states of March 2 and narrow the field to two candidates. Anything less will put us out of the race." But listen to what he said just the other day. 
MCMAHON:   Can I 
NOVAK:   Let's listen to what he said. I thought we were going to listen to what he said.    Come on. Bring it on. Bring it on. 
HOWARD DEAN  , PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE:   People are writing stories, but they don't know what they're talking about. But they don't know what they're talking about. We're not dropping out after Tuesday, period, no matter what. 
NOVAK:   On one hand, he says they're going to pull out. And now he says, we're not going to do it, no matter what. What happened? 
MCMAHON:   I think what happened is, somebody took a calculation and determined that 75 percent of the votes the Democratic Party primary voters are going to cast in this nominating process hasn't been cast yet; 75 percent of the delegates haven't been selected. To be honest with you, I think, at the time that e-mail went out, we were under the impression that the Senator Edwards might not be in Wisconsin. He's clearly there. He's clearly campaigning quite hard. Howard Dean indicated weeks ago that he wanted to get a head-to-head race with John Kerry, which is what Senator Edwards wants now as well. And it looks like maybe neither one of them is going to get it, at least not in the near term. 
NOVAK:   You just lost -- you just lost your national chairman. You don't have a schedule. You're out of this thing if you lose. Let's -- why don't -- why don't we just be frank? You can't effect any votes in Wisconsin at this hour. 
MCMAHON:   Well, listen, Bob, with all due respect, I'm not -- I'm not ready to let you declare the Democratic race for president over.    I know you would like to do that, or even frankly the general election at this point; 75 percent of the votes haven't been cast and Howard thinks that people deserve a choice. And he intends to give it to them. 
CARVILLE:   The most negative politician in modern American history is George W. Bush. He ran against John McCain's patriotism, said he was for breast cancer. Assume that John Kerry is the nominee. Is he going to sit by and let these kind of vicious attacks come from this administration, or is he going respond, or is he going to let Mr. Novak and his cronies sit there and pound on him all day? 
DEVINE:   He will not sit by. He will take a case against the president every step of the way. And I think, you know, and Democrats -- and this is important to Democrat, as you know, James. We want someone who is going to stand up and fight against the president, to point out the fact that we've lost three million jobs in this country, to point out the fact that the cost of health insurance has doubled since George Bush has become president. Two million people have lost health care. The problems in this nation are enormous. John Kerry will not back down or give an inch on national security or any of these issues to President Bush. 
NOVAK:   You know, I'd like...    Tad, I'd like you to -- I'd like to read you an editorial from "The Washington Post," a great newspaper. I like it because its opinions are very good, and they run my column. 
DEVINE:   Bob, we want a serious campaign on the issue. We think the real issues are the economy, health care, the security of this country, are something that should be debated by both of the major- party candidates. And I will tell you, we welcome that fight. John Kerry has a very different view of the world. He thinks America is less secure when we alienate the rest of the world. He believes that America is less secure 
NOVAK:   But you haven't explained how you're going to be different. 
DEVINE:   Sure. Be very different. Let me tell you, first of all, what about on taxes? John Kerry thinks middle-class families deserve tax relief. But the tax policies pursued by this president are creating a massive deficit and are drowning this economy. And his -- and, by the way, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers of President Bush says it's the policy of the United States of America to export jobs? I'll tell you, if he were working for John Kerry, he would be fired the next day, fired. 
CARVILLE:   Let me just point out that "The Washington Post" supported the debacle and the lies and everything that's gone in Iraq. Fred Hiatt and that whole editorial page is just looking for an invitation to cocktail parties and be cool. There's the ones that helped get America in this mess. You figure something out. Let me ask you a question. Do you foresee Dean teaming up with Ralph Nader or any third-party effort, assuming he's not 
MCMAHON:   No. 
CARVILLE:   Do you foresee him aligning with the Democratic Party and bringing about change to the policies of "The Washington Post" editorial page and George W. Bush and no jobs and skyrocketing deficits and quagmires in Iraq and everything else? 
MCMAHON:   He's said repeatedly that's he not going to do anything other than support the Democratic nominee. He obviously hopes, still, that it's going to be him. If it's not going to be him, if it's going to be Senator Kerry or Senator Edwards, he's going to be out there doing everything he can to make sure that they're elected president, because he believes, as Senator Kerry does, that the loss of jobs, that the deficit, that health -- the health care crisis in this country deserve a president who is willing to address them. And if it can't be Howard Dean, it's going to be either John Kerry or John Edwards and he'll be enthusiastically behind the nominee. 
NOVAK:   I want to ask you a question. You're an intellect, introspective person. I'm sure you think about things carefully...    ... unlike some people at this table. And -- I'm not talking about you, Tad. 
DEVINE:   Thank you, Bob. 
NOVAK:   I just wonder, do you ever wonder -- you were ahead everywhere. You were ahead in California, ahead in New York, ahead in Ohio. You were ahead nationally. You were just -- what did you do wrong? Do you ever think, my God, how could we have screwed this up? 
MCMAHON:   Well, obviously, obviously...    Obviously, it's something we think about every single day. Howard Dean was under a relentless barrage of negativity from his opponents, from the media, from third-party -- secret third-party groups that were running. 
CARVILLE:   From me. 
MCMAHON:   From James, from you. This is a show with the left and the right represented. And sometimes, when we'd tune in, we would find both of you attacking us. That wasn't just your show. It was a lot of shows. It was a lot of newspapers. 
NOVAK:   Why were you being attacked by us? 
MCMAHON:   It was secret third-party groups, Bob, that operated with contributions from secret third-party donors that weren't disclosed that 
NOVAK:   Nobody gave me any -- any contributions. 
MCMAHON:   But you just asked what happened. They got to attack Howard Dean with impunity. And over time, that has an impact. And one of the reasons that Howard Dean is staying in this race for the time being, at least, is because he's seen and knows better than anybody what can happen when you're on top and six weeks later you're not. And so, you know, Senator Kerry is doing well today. And congratulations for that. But it's a long way to the nomination. It's a long way to July and the convention.  And it's going to take 2,162 delegates or something. And Senator Kerry's a long way from that. 
CARVILLE:   It appears a long way. And, I mean, people have a right to run in this country, and, certainly, Governor Dean. By the way, I have never failed to say that he didn't make an enormous contribution to the party, or that you and Joe didn't do... 
NOVAK:   Oh, cut that out. 
CARVILLE:   Why?    I never failed to say it. I want to go back to what kind of -- if Senator Kerry is the nominee, are we going to like try to get people back in the party or are we going to try to bring them into the campaign here? What is -- what's -- what's their attitude over at the Kerry campaign right now? 
DEVINE:   Well, I think the attitude is that we want to bring the Democratic Party together, that we want to invite every part of it to join this cause, that if people -- I've never seen the Democratic Party united so early behind a single concept, which is, we must get rid of President Bush. And I think our campaign is going to be a very expansive one. We have tremendous people all across this country who want to participate in it. And they're going to be welcome to do so. 
NOVAK:   Do you think -- do you think, Tad, the American people are really going to tolerate a Carville campaign for eight months of getting rid of George W. Bush, where you have no ideas, where you have no plans? It's anti-Bush, anti-Bush. Do you really think that's going to be able to -- that the American people can stand that without regurgitating? 
DEVINE:   Bob, I think the tone and the tenor of this campaign is really in many ways going to be dictated by George Bush and the people around him. If they want an exchange of ideas and a contest of ideas, John Kerry welcome it. We'd love to debate the real policies.    But if they're going to come at John Kerry the way they came at, for example 
CARVILLE:   Does anybody have any idea what the Bob Novak-George Bush "Washington Post" editorial page is to get us out of debt? Does the "Washington Post" editorial page of Bob Novak and George W. Bush have the foggiest idea how to get our kids out of Iraq? Of course they don't. We're in a quagmire. We need change in this country, significant change. Thank God for the Democrats. 
NOVAK:   I have a plan for getting out, but we're going to take a break. And when we return, we'll put our guests in the "Rapid Fire" and ask whether Dr. Dean will soon be accepting patients once again. And right after the break, Wolf Blitzer will have the latest on how the U.S. military is shifting its tactics in the hunt for Osama bin Laden. 
ANNOUNCER:   Join Carville, Begala, Carlson and Novak in the CROSSFIRE. For free tickets to the live Washington audience, call 202-994-8CNN or e-mail us at CNN@gwu.edu. Now you can step into the CROSSFIRE.
