NOVAK:   Welcome back to CROSSFIRE. We're coming to you live from the George Washington University in Foggy Bottom, D.C. When President Bush delivers his State of the Union speech tonight, at least four Democrats, members of Congress in the audience, will be thinking in two years, by golly, that could be me. John Kerry, Joe Lieberman, John Edwards, Dick Gephardt. Are you kidding? But let's talk about the politics behind tonight's speech. 
BEGALA:   Let's do it, Bob. 
NOVAK:   I want to ask you something, Paul. 
BEGALA:   Go ahead -- yes sir? 
NOVAK:   Can you really imagine one of those four dull guys in January of 2000 or whatever it is, I can't get the year, coming before the American people as the president of the United States? Do you really, honestly... 
BEGALA:   Yes, because they'd have to get so many more votes, that even thief (ph) Justice Rehnquist couldn't steal it in a lawsuit. But I think it could happen, because if Bush continues on this trajectory... 
CARLSON:   Honestly? You can picture John Edwards getting up there, former ambulance chaser, and saying, I'm the president of the United States? 
BEGALA:   As opposed to George W. Bush, former drunk driver? I mean, come on, everybody changes and grows. I mean the president has now cleaned up his act. John Edwards did an honorable thing. He used to sue big corporations who hurt little children. What's wrong with that? 
CARLSON:   But seriously, you can imagine John Edwards being president of the United States for real? 
BEGALA:   Absolutely. 
CARLSON:   Really? You are an amazing... 
NOVAK:   All right. I'm going to try to -- Paul was disingenuous. Will you tell the truth, James? I want to say, the people who defeat incumbent presidents, Democrats who get elected, are either very unusual, they have a gimmick, like Jimmy Carter, or they're really dynamic like John F. Kennedy and, yes, Bill Clinton. Do you see a Bill Clinton in that crowd? Tell me who. 
CARVILLE:   I think any of them could. I'm not going to sit here and specify. 
NOVAK:   Oh come on. 
CARVILLE:   Every time it comes up -- you know what, I love this  . The economy is great, Bush can't lose, just keep right on going. You know what? You know what? That's what it is. 
NOVAK:   OK. But did I say Bush can't lose? 
CARVILLE:   Well you said you couldn't imagine any of these guys. 
NOVAK:   I said... 
BEGALA:   He said the Democrats can't win. What's Ralph Nader going to go in? 
NOVAK:   I didn't say that either. Let me just say what I said. I'm saying that these are not people of stature. 
CARVILLE:   John Kerry and Joe Lieberman are not men  ? Joe Lieberman was elected vice president of the United States. 
CARLSON:   Let me give you an example of why this president truly is underrated, I think, politically. Tonight he's going to talk about hydrogen fuel cells. You can laugh about it. But it's actually a very promising alternative energy source. It's the kind of thing, actually, that a Democrat, you would think would be behind. But they're not. After eight years in the Clinton administration, we didn't have massive federal investment in developing this. And now... 
CARVILLE:   Remember when Al Gore said we want to get rid of the internal combustion engine and everybody laughed? 
CARLSON:   But James -- and what happened? They accomplished nothing. And here's a president from the oil industry, truly, coming out for alternative energy. 
CARVILLE:   How much is he going to spend on it? 
CARLSON:   We're going to find out tonight, James. I don't know. 
CARVILLE:   You don't know? Watch. 
BEGALA:   Forgive me if I'm skeptical, though, because there are a whole list of broken promises. Also in that audience tonight in the stadium will be New York City firefighters. Some of the guys who Bush went and hugged when he visited ground zero on that emotional day where he performed so well. And they're here because the president promised them money to help track the health effects of the heroic work they did at 9/11. He hasn't come through with it. He promised money to aid first responders. He hasn't come through with it. He hasn't kept his promises even to the firefighters that he went to after 9/11. 
CARVILLE:   What about the children of the United States, little cowboys and cowgirls... 
BEGALA:   Oh no. See, he didn't lie about sex, so that's OK. If he lied about sex... 
CARLSON:   Will you all please... 
CARVILLE:   I'm asking a question, Tucker. Wasn't he -- did he lie to the little children of the United States out there? 
BEGALA:   Well actually, he did. He promised to fully fund and leave no child behind. 
CARLSON:   As your psychiatrist, I need to say that both of you all need help with this Clinton thing. This obsession with Bill Clinton. 
NOVAK:   You mentioned Clinton. You know... 
CARVILLE:   I didn't mention Clinton. He did. 
NOVAK:   I said he mentioned Clinton. I said he mentioned Clinton. I want to say that, you know, you can -- these are very political speeches. They have political motives, with either party, and sometimes you can get in trouble by being too cute politically, of letting a theatrical or dramatic trick or a rhetorical trick follow your policy. And on January 25, 1994, President Clinton did just that. And let's listen to what he said in that State of the Union. 
WILLIAM JEFFERSON CLINTON, FMR. PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES:   If you send me legislation that does not guarantee every American private health insurance that can never be taken away, you will force me to take this pen, veto the legislation, and will come back right back here and start all over again. 
NOVAK:   That was the headline. That was the sound bite from that State of the Union. But what it did was, it made it impossible for President Clinton to compromise on the healthcare bill. He didn't get any bill. He lost the Congress. They've never gotten back (ph) the House of Representatives. It was a disastrous gimmick, wasn't it, James? 
CARVILLE:   Well, I think you make a good point. And the point is that if you use these things, sometimes they come back to bite you. I think there were other reasons that they lost the House of Representatives. I think that if you go back in hindsight after that, you could have done it any number of different ways and you could probably put a different line in the speech. 
NOVAK:   What do you think of that? 
BEGALA:   Well I think I agree with James. I helped with that speech. 
CARVILLE:   You didn't write that line, but I supported it. 
BEGALA:   I think it was a mistake, just like the "axis of evil" last year was a big mistake. But I want to ask Tucker a different question. When I was working for President Clinton, since we've seen what a real president looks like giving a State of the Union address, he gave a speech on healthcare, which is the most complicated domestic issue there is. The teleprompter broke, he went and ad-libbed for nine minutes. What would happen if the prompter breaks tonight on Bush? 
CARLSON:   Actually, I'll answer that question. I mean, as someone who rambles on for a living, I admired Bill Clinton, maybe for the only time when he did that. He was a remarkable speaker. Technically he was really an amazing speaker. Very glib, and very smart. And it added up to nothing in the end. 
BEGALA:   What would... 
CARLSON:   And that truly was the sad -- that was the tragedy there. 
BEGALA:   What would President Bush do? What would he do? 
NOVAK:   I think you have spent very little time with President Bush. I spent a little time with him. I find him very lucid, very articulate. He can talk about any of these subjects with great ease. I think he would do very, very well at it. And why don't we debate these issues instead of this ridiculous Bush bashing that goes on at this table -- just a minute, I'm speaking -- night after night, and the American people are getting sick of it. 
BEGALA:   I just asked a question, Bob. 
CARVILLE:   Let me be real clear here. First thing is, every time that I have had an occasion to see the president he's been nothing but nice and gracious to me. But the second thing is, I am going to bash Bush every time I get a chance because I live in America. And in America nobody is above criticism, and anybody that insinuates that somehow or another we're being unpatriotic because we disagree vehemently with this man's policies... 
CARLSON:   Will you stop whining? 
CARVILLE:   I'm not whining. 
CARLSON:   Nobody is calling you unpatriotic. 
CARVILLE:   You know what? 
CARLSON:     of people are calling you unpatriotic is... 
CARVILLE:   You sit here, and I'm going to say -- let me tell you something, if you don't want to see this, don't watch this show. Because we believe these deficits are bad. We believe these policies are bad. We believe arsenic is bad. We think pollution is bad. We believe underfunding education is bad. And you know what? We're not going to stop. Ever, ever, ever, ever. 
CARLSON:   But the idea... 
CARVILLE:   And it's not whining  . It's standing up and having sense. 
CARLSON:   And the idea that are you standing up to powerful forces who are calling you unpatriotic is such a ludicrous -- actually it amuses me. 
BEGALA:   This is the new version of political correctness, this patriotic correctness we get from the right. Now, in a little bit, we will listen to the voice of the people, that is you. Some of our viewers will fire back your opinion on the state of our union. But first, we hosts get to deliver our own little assessments. Two of us will tell it like it is, two of us will tow the line for Bush. Stay tuned.
