BEGALA:   Never mind that the calendar says it's only January 23, 2003. By the way, my sister's birthday; happy birthday Kathleen. But the 2004 presidential race is already going full steam ahead. The six Democratic candidates -- there may yet be more -- as well as President Bush, are campaigning at every opportunity. And everyone has got an eye on President Bush's slowly sinking poll numbers. Looming ahead of course, the great unknown. What political impact might there be with a possible war in Iraq? Here to talk about the political wars, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman and Washington Times editorial page editor, Tony Blankley. Gentlemen, thank you. Good to see you.  
NOVAK:   Mark Mellman, you may hot believe this, but some of my best friends are Democrats. And one of my favorite Democrats is the senior senator from Georgia, Zell Miller. And he had a wonderful op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal today. I just want to read a little bit of it, put it up on the screen. "There's no one on this Hill or in this country who likes tax cuts more than I do. I've never seen one too big for me to swallow without water. I'd even been willing to pass both the president's plan and the Democrats plan as long we're willing to cut federal spending at the same time. I just firmly believe that government takes too much from our taxpayers, big and little alike. Let's suck in our gut, tighten our belts and spend these precious tax dollars on what's really important." Don't you think that if more Democrats said that, you'd be in a lot better shape as a party because you wouldn't give the Republicans any issues? 
MELLMAN:   Well, the reality is most Democrats, almost all Democrats do favor some kind of tax cuts. The question is, "Where's it going? Is it going to the wealthiest Americans, the millionaires? Or it going to ordinary people?" Democrats want a tax cut that's going to go to ordinary people. 
NOVAK:   You missed his point. 
MELLMAN:   Democrats don't want to spend Social Security money. I don't think Senator Miller is going to be that anxious to spend people's Social Security money on taxes for the wealthiest... 
NOVAK:   You missed his point. 
MELLMAN:   ... Americans. 
NOVAK:   So disappointing. 
BEGALA:   Tony, let me ask you -- pressing this tax point. First off, it's good to see you again. 
BLANKLEY:   Good to see you as well. 
BEGALA:   You're the only Republican who can out dress Willie Brown. The mayor of San Francisco was on here last night. And man, you can match him. You just -- God, you look great. Any way, Karl Rove, our friend, your friend, the president's chief political adviser, yesterday declared hilariously -- apparently with a straight face -- that Mr. Bush is a Populist. This despite the fact that independent studies show that 70 percent of the Bush tax cut goes to the Novakian rich. Why not just be honest and say, "Look, whatever his policy may be, wise or unwise, but it's certainly not a Populist plan." Why are they pulling this out? 
BLANKLEY:   Well, you know, I'm glad you asked. I happened to bring an editorial that we did in the Washington Times... 
BEGALA:   From your paper. 
BLANKLEY:   ... last week on middle class tax cuts, comparing what the Bush... 
MELLMAN:   You bring charts too. 
BLANKLEY:   Mine have to be accurate. Comparing what the Bush and the House Democratic plans offer to middle class families. And this families making -- in fact here's one -- single parent, one child, $20,000 a year income. The Republicans pay him $400, Democrats $300 per year. In almost all of the categories of people making less than $70,000 a year, the Republican plan delivers more money whether they've got no kids, one kid, two kids, three kids, income 20, 30, 40, 60. The Republican plan delivers more money into the hands of those people than the Democratic plan. 
BEGALA:   So Bush is a Populist, right, that's... 
BLANKLEY:   Well, no I don't think he's a Populist. I mean, Huey Long was a Populist. 
NOVAK:   I would give him credit for  . 
BLANKLEY:   I don't there are any true Populists left in big time politics today. 
NOVAK:   You know, you know, you're... 
BLANKLEY:   But as far as the tax cut is concerned, we can characterize it any way you want, but if you look where the dollars are going, the Republican plan gets more money to the middle class people than the Democratic plan. 
NOVAK:   Mark Mellman, the big thing that you're -- that the Democrats are trying to do is say that people -- that this is the Depression, that it's like 1930s and people are on the streets. I just want to show you a CNN/"TIME" poll asking about how people regard their own family's finances -- good, 75 percent, poor, 25 percent. Man, if you can get three out of four Americans to say they're doing pretty good, these are not such lean times, are they? 
MELLMAN:   Look, I think you're missing the reality that most people face out there, Bob. Most people are pretty anxious about their economic circumstances... 
NOVAK:   How do you explain that then? 
MELLMAN:   Well, I think if you asked a different question, you get a different answer, and the answer would be that people feel anxious about their financial situation. We've just lost 200,000 more jobs in the last couple of months. Nobody is sitting there saying, "I don't care about that." 
NOVAK:   They said they feel good about it. They feel... 
MELLMAN:   They feel good about those 200,000 jobs being lost? 
NOVAK:   They feel good about their... 
MELLMAN:   They feel good about their incomes declining? They feel good about the cost of their college education -- kid's college education going up? I don't think they do. 
NOVAK:   Maybe they don't buy  . BEGALA I think this is a wonderful message. I hope President Bush -- he watches every night, you know -- calls me at home and complains. I hope he's listening to Novak. I hope he campaigns on this, Tony, because this is what people -- what President Bush is going to take to the voters, this record. Let me put it up on the screen. Unemployment, up by 2.2 million -- 2.2 million people lost their jobs under Bush. Stock market down 38 percent under Bush. Poverty up 1.3 million under Bush. Homelessness up 19 percent. Budget deficit way up from a $300 billion surplus, a $300 billion deficit. The uninsured people without health care, up 1.4 million. This is the Bush economic record. Now are we better off than we were two years ago? 
BLANKLEY:   Now, look, everybody... 
BEGALA:   I don't think so. 
BLANKLEY:   ... understands that the economy had a bubble in the late '90s. It started deflating under the Clinton watch. It continues now. I don't think the economy... 
MELLMAN:   Bob doesn't think it's deflating. 
BLANKLEY:   ... well, I... 
MELLMAN:   Bob thinks it's going great. 
BLANKLEY:   No, and I'll tell you... 
MELLMAN:   He thinks everybody is thrilled. 
NOVAK:   I  . 
BEGALA:   I'll bet you are thrilled. 
BLANKLEY:   The truth of the matter... 
MELLMAN:   But I'll bet you're pretty much alone in being thrilled... 
BLANKLEY:   ... look, the fact is the economy is pretty close to dead in the water right now. The public is concerned... 
NOVAK:   It is not. 
BLANKLEY:   Of course it is. 
NOVAK:   Dead in the water? 
BLANKLEY:   Let me just finish a thought. 
BEGALA:   Yes, sir. 
BLANKLEY:   I think the public is smarter than you impute to them, than you impute their intelligence to them. I think they understand that there's a process going on with the bubble, the collapse, the war, terrorism. And they feel pretty good about things under the circumstances. They're a little worried about the future. 
BEGALA:   Yes.  
BLANKLEY:   They don't blame the president for everything, which is why he's at a 61 percent approval rating in Gallup Poll, which is CNN's pollster. They're pretty reasonable about figuring out what's the consequences of a presidential policy, and seeing what he's done. He's cut taxes. We've had interest rates come down through the Federal Reserve from 6 percent to 1.25. We've stimulated the economy in the last two years, a half trillion more spending between the trillion dollars -- surplus we had and now the quarter trillion deficit. That's very stimulative. They recognize the federal government is doing a lot to try to make the economy better. 
NOVAK:   OK, you made a good point, Tony. I want to change the subject to a dastardly plot, a conspiracy inside the Democratic Party. The presidential race is starting, and you people are already have a conspiracy to hurt one of your own, the Reverend Al Sharpton. You don't want him to succeed. I want to read you two quotes from "The New York Post," which does some original reporting. And the first quote is this. We'll put it up there. "If Sharpton does well, it's going to be hard to deny him a place at the podium at the Democratic convention in prime time, as a Democratic strategists, they don't want him." And then the other one is, "We pray for Carol Moseley-Braun." What does that mean? Suddenly, the defeated, disgraced former senator from Illinois, scandal ridden, Carol Moseley-Braun, who like the Reverend Al, is an African American, announces for president of the United States, is just to suck the oxygen away from him. Are you part of that conspiracy? 
MELLMAN:   I'm part of no conspiracies of any kind. 
NOVAK:   Well, who is in the conspiracy? 
MELLMAN:   I don't know. You ought to ask those blind quotes in "The New York Post" and see who gave them. 
BLANKLEY:   I think Donna Brazile has talked about that. 
NOVAK:   Do you think it was Donna Brazile who was saying that? 
BLANKLEY:   I don't know that she was saying that, but she and a lot of other people have been articulating that concern. 
NOVAK:   It sounds like her though, doesn't it? 
BEGALA:   Well, she of course, was the campaign manager for Al Gore. She has a perfect right to support or oppose any candidate she wants... 
NOVAK:   You were going to say she  . 
MELLMAN:   Look, Al Sharpton has a leadership position in the city of New York in the African American community. He's got to compete in the rest of the country. 
NOVAK:   He's got a right, doesn't he? 
MELLMAN:   Sorry? 
NOVAK:   He's got a right to run for president? 
MELLMAN:   Of course, he's got a right to run. Even you have a right to run for president. 
NOVAK:   Why do people like Begala attack him and deride him? Is that racism or what is it? 
MELLMAN:   It's not racism at all. The fact is he's got -- the man is controversial. He's been in court as a result of his controversies. He's going to have to go around the country and earn votes. If he earns votes, he will do well. If he doesn't earn votes, he won't. He's got to go out and earn those votes. 
BEGALA:   We're almost out of time, but I want to come back to one other comment that Karl Rove made. He also compared our president on the environment. George W. Bush, he called him a Teddy Roosevelt Republican. Now, I happened to check this out too. Here's what TR did. TR created five national parks. Bush increased air pollution in national parks. Roosevelt created 230 million acres of new federal land he preserved. Bush wants to drill in the Arctic. Roosevelt protected rivers and streams. Bush, of course, 500 percent increase in arsenic in the drinking water. TR is spinning in his grave, man. What is Karl smoking? 
BLANKLEY:   First of all, in the drilling in the arctic preserve doesn't affect any area that anyone -- any environmental value. It's got a very small footprint. Oh, boo, boo, boo. Yes, look, the fact is... 
BEGALA:   You're not allowed to boo on the show. 
BLANKLEY:   ... you drive here, you need gas, too. And we can get it from there at a very low environmental impact. Let me put...  
NOVAK:   No, that's the last word, Tony. We are out of time. Thank you very much, Tony Blankley, Mark Mellman. They'll be wishing for a hot time in Dixie tonight. Next in the "CNN News Alert", Connie Chung will tell us about the latest invasion from the far north. And later, we will ask whether the left wing ever will be satisfied until they erase any hint that public officials might be, god forbid, religious.
