<article>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#article09_12_19_1255259</id>
	<title>Insurgent Attacks Follow Mathematical Pattern</title>
	<author>Soulskill</author>
	<datestamp>1261233900000</datestamp>
	<htmltext><a href="http://hughpickens.com/slashdot/" rel="nofollow">Hugh Pickens</a> writes <i>"<em>Nature</em> reports that data collected on the timing of attacks and number of casualties from more than 54,000 events across nine insurgent wars, including those fought in Iraq between 2003 and 2008 and in Sierra Leone between 1994 and 2003, suggest that insurgencies have a common underlying pattern that <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/2009/091216/full/462836a.html">may allow the timing of attacks and the number of casualties to be predicted</a>. By plotting the distribution of the frequency and size of events, the team found that insurgent wars follow an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power\_law">approximate power law</a>, in which the frequency of attacks decreases with increasing attack size to the power of 2.5. This means that for any insurgent war, an attack with 10 casualties is 316 times more likely to occur than one with 100 casualties (316 is 10 to the power of 2.5). 'We found that the way in which humans do insurgent wars &mdash; that is, the <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v462/n7275/fig\_tab/nature08631\_F3.html#figure-title">number of casualties and the timing of events &mdash; is universal</a>,' says team leader Neil Johnson, a physicist at the University of Miami in Florida. 'This changes the way we think insurgency works.' To explain what was driving this common pattern, the researchers created a mathematical model which assumes that insurgent groups form and fragment when they sense danger, and strike in well-timed bursts to maximize their media exposure. Johnson is now working to predict how the insurgency in Afghanistan might respond to the influx of foreign troops recently announced by US President Barack Obama. 'We do observe a complicated <a href="http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2009/0324math\_terrorism.shtml">pattern that has to do with the way humans do violence in some collective way</a>,' adds Johnson."</i></htmltext>
<tokenext>Hugh Pickens writes " Nature reports that data collected on the timing of attacks and number of casualties from more than 54,000 events across nine insurgent wars , including those fought in Iraq between 2003 and 2008 and in Sierra Leone between 1994 and 2003 , suggest that insurgencies have a common underlying pattern that may allow the timing of attacks and the number of casualties to be predicted .
By plotting the distribution of the frequency and size of events , the team found that insurgent wars follow an approximate power law , in which the frequency of attacks decreases with increasing attack size to the power of 2.5 .
This means that for any insurgent war , an attack with 10 casualties is 316 times more likely to occur than one with 100 casualties ( 316 is 10 to the power of 2.5 ) .
'We found that the way in which humans do insurgent wars    that is , the number of casualties and the timing of events    is universal, ' says team leader Neil Johnson , a physicist at the University of Miami in Florida .
'This changes the way we think insurgency works .
' To explain what was driving this common pattern , the researchers created a mathematical model which assumes that insurgent groups form and fragment when they sense danger , and strike in well-timed bursts to maximize their media exposure .
Johnson is now working to predict how the insurgency in Afghanistan might respond to the influx of foreign troops recently announced by US President Barack Obama .
'We do observe a complicated pattern that has to do with the way humans do violence in some collective way, ' adds Johnson .
"</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Hugh Pickens writes "Nature reports that data collected on the timing of attacks and number of casualties from more than 54,000 events across nine insurgent wars, including those fought in Iraq between 2003 and 2008 and in Sierra Leone between 1994 and 2003, suggest that insurgencies have a common underlying pattern that may allow the timing of attacks and the number of casualties to be predicted.
By plotting the distribution of the frequency and size of events, the team found that insurgent wars follow an approximate power law, in which the frequency of attacks decreases with increasing attack size to the power of 2.5.
This means that for any insurgent war, an attack with 10 casualties is 316 times more likely to occur than one with 100 casualties (316 is 10 to the power of 2.5).
'We found that the way in which humans do insurgent wars — that is, the number of casualties and the timing of events — is universal,' says team leader Neil Johnson, a physicist at the University of Miami in Florida.
'This changes the way we think insurgency works.
' To explain what was driving this common pattern, the researchers created a mathematical model which assumes that insurgent groups form and fragment when they sense danger, and strike in well-timed bursts to maximize their media exposure.
Johnson is now working to predict how the insurgency in Afghanistan might respond to the influx of foreign troops recently announced by US President Barack Obama.
'We do observe a complicated pattern that has to do with the way humans do violence in some collective way,' adds Johnson.
"</sentencetext>
</article>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498586</id>
	<title>Hmm</title>
	<author>Dunbal</author>
	<datestamp>1261239540000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>It will be interesting to see if there is any real "predictive" value behind this hypothesis. There's only one way to find out, and that's waiting to see if FUTURE (not past) data correlates with the model. Then there's the whole argument about the model itself changing the way insurgents are dealt with (since I assume the security forces aren't going to sit around and wait for people to die if the model predicts a "high" probability) and thus changing the expected results. And what about people being identified as "terrorists" on circumstantial evidence strictly because of the "higher probability" of an imminent attack?</p><p>We may never know if this model is true. As a day trader, however, I can shake my head at people who exclaim they have a new theory to predict the future based on the past. Yeah, er, good luck with that. There's something called "insufficient data". Just wait.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>It will be interesting to see if there is any real " predictive " value behind this hypothesis .
There 's only one way to find out , and that 's waiting to see if FUTURE ( not past ) data correlates with the model .
Then there 's the whole argument about the model itself changing the way insurgents are dealt with ( since I assume the security forces are n't going to sit around and wait for people to die if the model predicts a " high " probability ) and thus changing the expected results .
And what about people being identified as " terrorists " on circumstantial evidence strictly because of the " higher probability " of an imminent attack ? We may never know if this model is true .
As a day trader , however , I can shake my head at people who exclaim they have a new theory to predict the future based on the past .
Yeah , er , good luck with that .
There 's something called " insufficient data " .
Just wait .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>It will be interesting to see if there is any real "predictive" value behind this hypothesis.
There's only one way to find out, and that's waiting to see if FUTURE (not past) data correlates with the model.
Then there's the whole argument about the model itself changing the way insurgents are dealt with (since I assume the security forces aren't going to sit around and wait for people to die if the model predicts a "high" probability) and thus changing the expected results.
And what about people being identified as "terrorists" on circumstantial evidence strictly because of the "higher probability" of an imminent attack?We may never know if this model is true.
As a day trader, however, I can shake my head at people who exclaim they have a new theory to predict the future based on the past.
Yeah, er, good luck with that.
There's something called "insufficient data".
Just wait.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498786</id>
	<title>Re:There was a TED talk on this</title>
	<author>tomhath</author>
	<datestamp>1261241880000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Interestin</modclass>
	<modscore>4</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>Excellent point. But it make me question his definition of an insurgency.</p><p>Apparently, an insurgency that's crushed quickly doesn't count as an insurgency. And an insurgency that grows into a civil war doesn't count as an insurgency.</p><p>Only if the counter-insurgency is somewhat effective in reducing but not eliminating the number of attacks does he include it in his data set. In conclusion (and most remarkably) the data in his data set show a strong correlation across "insurgencies".</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>Excellent point .
But it make me question his definition of an insurgency.Apparently , an insurgency that 's crushed quickly does n't count as an insurgency .
And an insurgency that grows into a civil war does n't count as an insurgency.Only if the counter-insurgency is somewhat effective in reducing but not eliminating the number of attacks does he include it in his data set .
In conclusion ( and most remarkably ) the data in his data set show a strong correlation across " insurgencies " .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Excellent point.
But it make me question his definition of an insurgency.Apparently, an insurgency that's crushed quickly doesn't count as an insurgency.
And an insurgency that grows into a civil war doesn't count as an insurgency.Only if the counter-insurgency is somewhat effective in reducing but not eliminating the number of attacks does he include it in his data set.
In conclusion (and most remarkably) the data in his data set show a strong correlation across "insurgencies".</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498438</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30499944</id>
	<title>One more study to</title>
	<author>AnAdventurer</author>
	<datestamp>1261252440000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Insightful</modclass>
	<modscore>2</modscore>
	<htmltext>Just what we need, another mathematical model show people are numbers and the dead and wounded (wounded; not like a broken finger, but like arm GONE) are only statistics.</htmltext>
<tokenext>Just what we need , another mathematical model show people are numbers and the dead and wounded ( wounded ; not like a broken finger , but like arm GONE ) are only statistics .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Just what we need, another mathematical model show people are numbers and the dead and wounded (wounded; not like a broken finger, but like arm GONE) are only statistics.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30500302</id>
	<title>Re:Hari Seldon.</title>
	<author>TimSSG</author>
	<datestamp>1261213800000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext>Remember the Second Foundation was destroyed; it no longer exists.

Tim S.</htmltext>
<tokenext>Remember the Second Foundation was destroyed ; it no longer exists .
Tim S .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Remember the Second Foundation was destroyed; it no longer exists.
Tim S.</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498668</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498708</id>
	<title>Just One Question</title>
	<author>LtCol Burrito</author>
	<datestamp>1261240980000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext>So, if we know when they're going to attack, wouldn't we not want them to know that we know?  I mean, won't publicizing this just make the insurgents change their pattern?<nobr> <wbr></nobr>...military intelligence.</htmltext>
<tokenext>So , if we know when they 're going to attack , would n't we not want them to know that we know ?
I mean , wo n't publicizing this just make the insurgents change their pattern ?
...military intelligence .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>So, if we know when they're going to attack, wouldn't we not want them to know that we know?
I mean, won't publicizing this just make the insurgents change their pattern?
...military intelligence.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498552</id>
	<title>Predictable?</title>
	<author>TimeElf1</author>
	<datestamp>1261239300000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext><i>Modelers claim wars are predictable</i>
<br>
<br>
Up to a point yes they are, but as Helmuth Karl Bernhard Graf von Moltke so succulently said <i> <b>No battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy.</b> </i>  I can only imagine that if someone tries to predict a battle they are going to be left holding their graph at the end of the battle saying what the hell just happened?</htmltext>
<tokenext>Modelers claim wars are predictable Up to a point yes they are , but as Helmuth Karl Bernhard Graf von Moltke so succulently said No battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy .
I can only imagine that if someone tries to predict a battle they are going to be left holding their graph at the end of the battle saying what the hell just happened ?</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Modelers claim wars are predictable


Up to a point yes they are, but as Helmuth Karl Bernhard Graf von Moltke so succulently said  No battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy.
I can only imagine that if someone tries to predict a battle they are going to be left holding their graph at the end of the battle saying what the hell just happened?</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498806</id>
	<title>The 2.5 Exponent</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261242180000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Interestin</modclass>
	<modscore>3</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>The value of the exponent is interesting.  If one assumes that the smallest attacks happen roughly once a day then the attacks that are an order of magnitude larger happen about once a year.  This implies that there may be some sort of calendar event that triggers these larger events.  If these events can be identified then it may help avoid some of the large attacks.  It would be interesting to check this by looking at the timing of the largest attacks in the data set that was used for this study.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>The value of the exponent is interesting .
If one assumes that the smallest attacks happen roughly once a day then the attacks that are an order of magnitude larger happen about once a year .
This implies that there may be some sort of calendar event that triggers these larger events .
If these events can be identified then it may help avoid some of the large attacks .
It would be interesting to check this by looking at the timing of the largest attacks in the data set that was used for this study .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>The value of the exponent is interesting.
If one assumes that the smallest attacks happen roughly once a day then the attacks that are an order of magnitude larger happen about once a year.
This implies that there may be some sort of calendar event that triggers these larger events.
If these events can be identified then it may help avoid some of the large attacks.
It would be interesting to check this by looking at the timing of the largest attacks in the data set that was used for this study.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498566</id>
	<title>Location?</title>
	<author>sunderland56</author>
	<datestamp>1261239420000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext>I don't believe that they have enough data to accurately model the size and time of a future attack - but let's just say for a minute that they did. That information is still useless without a <i>location</i>.</htmltext>
<tokenext>I do n't believe that they have enough data to accurately model the size and time of a future attack - but let 's just say for a minute that they did .
That information is still useless without a location .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>I don't believe that they have enough data to accurately model the size and time of a future attack - but let's just say for a minute that they did.
That information is still useless without a location.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498832</id>
	<title>Re:I must be missing something</title>
	<author>Livius</author>
	<datestamp>1261242480000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>I'm sure there's something important in the details, but power laws always turn up in statistically independent events.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>I 'm sure there 's something important in the details , but power laws always turn up in statistically independent events .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>I'm sure there's something important in the details, but power laws always turn up in statistically independent events.</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498498</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30500104</id>
	<title>Re:There was a TED talk on this</title>
	<author>MoeDrippins</author>
	<datestamp>1261254600000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>Thanks for that; I *KNEW* this sounded familiar and had seen it, or something like it, once before.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>Thanks for that ; I * KNEW * this sounded familiar and had seen it , or something like it , once before .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Thanks for that; I *KNEW* this sounded familiar and had seen it, or something like it, once before.</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498438</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498438</id>
	<title>There was a TED talk on this</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261237740000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Informativ</modclass>
	<modscore>5</modscore>
	<htmltext>Sean Gourley shows that if the exponent is larger or smaller than 2.5, the war becomes unsustainable and ends fairly quickly.  <a href="http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/sean\_gourley\_on\_the\_mathematics\_of\_war.html" title="ted.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/sean\_gourley\_on\_the\_mathematics\_of\_war.html</a> [ted.com]</htmltext>
<tokenext>Sean Gourley shows that if the exponent is larger or smaller than 2.5 , the war becomes unsustainable and ends fairly quickly .
http : //www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/sean \ _gourley \ _on \ _the \ _mathematics \ _of \ _war.html [ ted.com ]</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Sean Gourley shows that if the exponent is larger or smaller than 2.5, the war becomes unsustainable and ends fairly quickly.
http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/sean\_gourley\_on\_the\_mathematics\_of\_war.html [ted.com]</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30500254</id>
	<title>Re:Predictable?</title>
	<author>servognome</author>
	<datestamp>1261213320000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext>Military operations are made in terms of probability rather than absolute success or failure.  No military leader with any experience thinks they can predict the outcome of a battle.  They can however, create a plan to put resources in place and maximize flexibility to give their troops the best chance for success.<blockquote><div><p>I can only imagine that if someone tries to predict a battle they are going to be left holding their graph at the end of the battle saying what the hell just happened?</p></div></blockquote><p>At the end of any action there is a <a href="http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/army/tc\_25-20/tc25-20.pdf" title="af.mil">review </a> [af.mil] of what the hell happened.</p></div>
	</htmltext>
<tokenext>Military operations are made in terms of probability rather than absolute success or failure .
No military leader with any experience thinks they can predict the outcome of a battle .
They can however , create a plan to put resources in place and maximize flexibility to give their troops the best chance for success.I can only imagine that if someone tries to predict a battle they are going to be left holding their graph at the end of the battle saying what the hell just happened ? At the end of any action there is a review [ af.mil ] of what the hell happened .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Military operations are made in terms of probability rather than absolute success or failure.
No military leader with any experience thinks they can predict the outcome of a battle.
They can however, create a plan to put resources in place and maximize flexibility to give their troops the best chance for success.I can only imagine that if someone tries to predict a battle they are going to be left holding their graph at the end of the battle saying what the hell just happened?At the end of any action there is a review  [af.mil] of what the hell happened.
	</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498552</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498668</id>
	<title>Hari Seldon.</title>
	<author>Jhon</author>
	<datestamp>1261240560000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Insightful</modclass>
	<modscore>4</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>'nuff said.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>'nuff said .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>'nuff said.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498654</id>
	<title>Human Solidarity</title>
	<author>psnyder</author>
	<datestamp>1261240440000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Interestin</modclass>
	<modscore>2</modscore>
	<htmltext><p><div class="quote"><p>the way in which humans do insurgent wars &mdash; that is, the number of casualties and the timing of events &mdash; is universal</p></div><p>Did anyone else find it ironic that human solidarity was found in acts against human solidarity?</p></div>
	</htmltext>
<tokenext>the way in which humans do insurgent wars    that is , the number of casualties and the timing of events    is universalDid anyone else find it ironic that human solidarity was found in acts against human solidarity ?</tokentext>
<sentencetext>the way in which humans do insurgent wars — that is, the number of casualties and the timing of events — is universalDid anyone else find it ironic that human solidarity was found in acts against human solidarity?
	</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30500568</id>
	<title>Interesting...</title>
	<author>tengeta</author>
	<datestamp>1261217760000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Insightful</modclass>
	<modscore>2</modscore>
	<htmltext>Sir you are under arrest for a crime you would be committing in an hour. Our equation said so.</htmltext>
<tokenext>Sir you are under arrest for a crime you would be committing in an hour .
Our equation said so .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Sir you are under arrest for a crime you would be committing in an hour.
Our equation said so.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498630</id>
	<title>Caveat in re: power laws in empirical data</title>
	<author>Internalist</author>
	<datestamp>1261240140000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Interestin</modclass>
	<modscore>5</modscore>
	<htmltext><p><a href="http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/" title="cmu.edu" rel="nofollow">Cosma Shalizi</a> [cmu.edu] rants a lot about scientists' (often physicists') claims about having found a power law description of some empirical phenomenon (upshot: finding a straight line on a log-log plot isn't enough). See the following:</p><p><a href="http://cscs.umich.edu/~crshalizi/weblog/491.html" title="umich.edu" rel="nofollow">http://cscs.umich.edu/~crshalizi/weblog/491.html</a> [umich.edu]<br><a href="http://cscs.umich.edu/~crshalizi/notebooks/power-laws.html" title="umich.edu" rel="nofollow">http://cscs.umich.edu/~crshalizi/notebooks/power-laws.html</a> [umich.edu]</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>Cosma Shalizi [ cmu.edu ] rants a lot about scientists ' ( often physicists ' ) claims about having found a power law description of some empirical phenomenon ( upshot : finding a straight line on a log-log plot is n't enough ) .
See the following : http : //cscs.umich.edu/ ~ crshalizi/weblog/491.html [ umich.edu ] http : //cscs.umich.edu/ ~ crshalizi/notebooks/power-laws.html [ umich.edu ]</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Cosma Shalizi [cmu.edu] rants a lot about scientists' (often physicists') claims about having found a power law description of some empirical phenomenon (upshot: finding a straight line on a log-log plot isn't enough).
See the following:http://cscs.umich.edu/~crshalizi/weblog/491.html [umich.edu]http://cscs.umich.edu/~crshalizi/notebooks/power-laws.html [umich.edu]</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30499166</id>
	<title>Re:Hari Seldon.</title>
	<author>Grygus</author>
	<datestamp>1261245480000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext>He predicted someone would post that.</htmltext>
<tokenext>He predicted someone would post that .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>He predicted someone would post that.</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498668</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498612</id>
	<title>Past Data</title>
	<author>Sanat</author>
	<datestamp>1261239900000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>I know that if I continuously flip a coin that it will come up "heads" about one half of the time.</p><p>But, that does not mean I know whether the next flip will be "heads" or "tails".</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>I know that if I continuously flip a coin that it will come up " heads " about one half of the time.But , that does not mean I know whether the next flip will be " heads " or " tails " .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>I know that if I continuously flip a coin that it will come up "heads" about one half of the time.But, that does not mean I know whether the next flip will be "heads" or "tails".</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498620</id>
	<title>Just Biology</title>
	<author>pz</author>
	<datestamp>1261239960000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Insightful</modclass>
	<modscore>4</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>The result is cool, and important in the details, but is not that interesting in terms of breaking new ground.  As a biologist, having measured countless number of behavioral parameters that all follow power laws, it is not surprising that yet another biological behavior, waging a particlar kind of war in this case, follows a power law.  That part is ho-hum.</p><p>Similarly it would only surprise me if things like, oh, the size of undergraduate populations at different universities, the number of cars in each country, the number of stray dogs in each city, the average brain mass for each species, or the number of bullets used in any given firefight, do NOT follow a power law.  It's just biology.  That's the way things work.</p><p>And, to keep things in perspective, I'm just a biologist.  It could be that all natural phenomena follow that sort of pattern, like the mass of celestial objects, the surface areas of land masses, the percent cloud cover at each point on Earth, etc.  The basic idea of power laws -- lots of small versions of a thing, only a few big ones, and a smooth distribution between -- seems inherently universal to my small brain.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>The result is cool , and important in the details , but is not that interesting in terms of breaking new ground .
As a biologist , having measured countless number of behavioral parameters that all follow power laws , it is not surprising that yet another biological behavior , waging a particlar kind of war in this case , follows a power law .
That part is ho-hum.Similarly it would only surprise me if things like , oh , the size of undergraduate populations at different universities , the number of cars in each country , the number of stray dogs in each city , the average brain mass for each species , or the number of bullets used in any given firefight , do NOT follow a power law .
It 's just biology .
That 's the way things work.And , to keep things in perspective , I 'm just a biologist .
It could be that all natural phenomena follow that sort of pattern , like the mass of celestial objects , the surface areas of land masses , the percent cloud cover at each point on Earth , etc .
The basic idea of power laws -- lots of small versions of a thing , only a few big ones , and a smooth distribution between -- seems inherently universal to my small brain .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>The result is cool, and important in the details, but is not that interesting in terms of breaking new ground.
As a biologist, having measured countless number of behavioral parameters that all follow power laws, it is not surprising that yet another biological behavior, waging a particlar kind of war in this case, follows a power law.
That part is ho-hum.Similarly it would only surprise me if things like, oh, the size of undergraduate populations at different universities, the number of cars in each country, the number of stray dogs in each city, the average brain mass for each species, or the number of bullets used in any given firefight, do NOT follow a power law.
It's just biology.
That's the way things work.And, to keep things in perspective, I'm just a biologist.
It could be that all natural phenomena follow that sort of pattern, like the mass of celestial objects, the surface areas of land masses, the percent cloud cover at each point on Earth, etc.
The basic idea of power laws -- lots of small versions of a thing, only a few big ones, and a smooth distribution between -- seems inherently universal to my small brain.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498716</id>
	<title>Not surprising at all.</title>
	<author>tjstork</author>
	<datestamp>1261241100000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Insightful</modclass>
	<modscore>3</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>Let's see. It takes more energy, time, and complexity, to move into place the resources needed for a bigger attack.   So, its not really surprising at all that bigger attacks occur less frequently or even obey a power law.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>Let 's see .
It takes more energy , time , and complexity , to move into place the resources needed for a bigger attack .
So , its not really surprising at all that bigger attacks occur less frequently or even obey a power law .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Let's see.
It takes more energy, time, and complexity, to move into place the resources needed for a bigger attack.
So, its not really surprising at all that bigger attacks occur less frequently or even obey a power law.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30500866</id>
	<title>Foundation</title>
	<author>dov\_0</author>
	<datestamp>1261221960000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext>Asimov eat your heart out.</htmltext>
<tokenext>Asimov eat your heart out .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Asimov eat your heart out.</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498430</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30499906</id>
	<title>Re:Predicting humans</title>
	<author>servognome</author>
	<datestamp>1261252020000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext>Creating a recursive function doesn't mean the problem isn't computable.</htmltext>
<tokenext>Creating a recursive function does n't mean the problem is n't computable .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Creating a recursive function doesn't mean the problem isn't computable.</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498528</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30500954</id>
	<title>Re:Hari Seldon.</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261223340000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>And now that they've told us the Plan we can go ahead and change everything.</p><p>Observations will differ now that measurements have been taken.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>And now that they 've told us the Plan we can go ahead and change everything.Observations will differ now that measurements have been taken .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>And now that they've told us the Plan we can go ahead and change everything.Observations will differ now that measurements have been taken.</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498668</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30512628</id>
	<title>The Fields Medal point of view</title>
	<author>alphan1L0</author>
	<datestamp>1261414080000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext>I am not a mathematician, I tried to check what is a power law.

But I have found that :
"Vladimir Arnold gave the catastrophes the ADE classification, due to a deep connection with simple Lie groups."

It still seems meaningless to me.</htmltext>
<tokenext>I am not a mathematician , I tried to check what is a power law .
But I have found that : " Vladimir Arnold gave the catastrophes the ADE classification , due to a deep connection with simple Lie groups .
" It still seems meaningless to me .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>I am not a mathematician, I tried to check what is a power law.
But I have found that :
"Vladimir Arnold gave the catastrophes the ADE classification, due to a deep connection with simple Lie groups.
"

It still seems meaningless to me.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498818</id>
	<title>Re:I must be missing something</title>
	<author>bkeahl</author>
	<datestamp>1261242300000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext>No, you're not missing anything.  I was thinking the same thing as I was reading the article.  It was an interesting article though.

Yeah, it's a lot easier to get 10 people together to do something than 100. Therefore, you'll have more activity with 10 participants than 100 participants.

I read the article thinking they were going to be able to accurately predict probabilities by day - which would be really useful.</htmltext>
<tokenext>No , you 're not missing anything .
I was thinking the same thing as I was reading the article .
It was an interesting article though .
Yeah , it 's a lot easier to get 10 people together to do something than 100 .
Therefore , you 'll have more activity with 10 participants than 100 participants .
I read the article thinking they were going to be able to accurately predict probabilities by day - which would be really useful .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>No, you're not missing anything.
I was thinking the same thing as I was reading the article.
It was an interesting article though.
Yeah, it's a lot easier to get 10 people together to do something than 100.
Therefore, you'll have more activity with 10 participants than 100 participants.
I read the article thinking they were going to be able to accurately predict probabilities by day - which would be really useful.</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498498</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498432</id>
	<title>First comment</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261237680000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Offtopic</modclass>
	<modscore>-1</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>First comment. Yes!!</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>First comment .
Yes ! !</tokentext>
<sentencetext>First comment.
Yes!!</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30500126</id>
	<title>How does this help?</title>
	<author>Primitive Pete</author>
	<datestamp>1261254900000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Interestin</modclass>
	<modscore>2</modscore>
	<htmltext>I think a lot of comments above miss a more important point, that knowing the attacks follow a power law distribution (for argument's sake) still doesn't help predict individual events.

Really, unless you're placing bets on terrorism (google for "futures market terrorism Poindexter") this won't help you much.</htmltext>
<tokenext>I think a lot of comments above miss a more important point , that knowing the attacks follow a power law distribution ( for argument 's sake ) still does n't help predict individual events .
Really , unless you 're placing bets on terrorism ( google for " futures market terrorism Poindexter " ) this wo n't help you much .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>I think a lot of comments above miss a more important point, that knowing the attacks follow a power law distribution (for argument's sake) still doesn't help predict individual events.
Really, unless you're placing bets on terrorism (google for "futures market terrorism Poindexter") this won't help you much.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498676</id>
	<title>Listing of recent "Islamic Terror Attacks"</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261240680000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>Found this link recently that is purportedly a detailed listing of all the "Islamic Terror Attacks" for the last two months.</p><p>http://www.thereligionofpeace.com/index.html#Attacks</p><p>The site is a strong concentration on only the violent aspect of Islam.  It's pretty horrific.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>Found this link recently that is purportedly a detailed listing of all the " Islamic Terror Attacks " for the last two months.http : //www.thereligionofpeace.com/index.html # AttacksThe site is a strong concentration on only the violent aspect of Islam .
It 's pretty horrific .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Found this link recently that is purportedly a detailed listing of all the "Islamic Terror Attacks" for the last two months.http://www.thereligionofpeace.com/index.html#AttacksThe site is a strong concentration on only the violent aspect of Islam.
It's pretty horrific.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30499266</id>
	<title>Another significant pattern</title>
	<author>aoeu</author>
	<datestamp>1261246320000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext>is one that my brother noticed vis a vis the earliest days of the insurgency in Iraq. If there is a lethal attack every day, it is organized.</htmltext>
<tokenext>is one that my brother noticed vis a vis the earliest days of the insurgency in Iraq .
If there is a lethal attack every day , it is organized .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>is one that my brother noticed vis a vis the earliest days of the insurgency in Iraq.
If there is a lethal attack every day, it is organized.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30518864</id>
	<title>Re:Uhuh</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261403520000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>Yup, and it goes like this.</p><p>Send 30,000+ troops to a foreign land and scare the hell out of un-armed men, women, and children.<br>Foreigners get pissed and fight back.<br>Now the natives of that land are called "Terrorist" for defending their own homes.</p><p>Here's an idea, BRING  OUR  TROOPS  HOME  NOW!  Stop sending american's to the middle east.<br>If someone tried to come into your home with guns pointed at you, what would you call them.  TERRORISTS.<br>Would you be scared?  Of course.</p><p>That's what our troops are to these people.<br>Look in the mirror America.  We are the terrorists.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>Yup , and it goes like this.Send 30,000 + troops to a foreign land and scare the hell out of un-armed men , women , and children.Foreigners get pissed and fight back.Now the natives of that land are called " Terrorist " for defending their own homes.Here 's an idea , BRING OUR TROOPS HOME NOW !
Stop sending american 's to the middle east.If someone tried to come into your home with guns pointed at you , what would you call them .
TERRORISTS.Would you be scared ?
Of course.That 's what our troops are to these people.Look in the mirror America .
We are the terrorists .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Yup, and it goes like this.Send 30,000+ troops to a foreign land and scare the hell out of un-armed men, women, and children.Foreigners get pissed and fight back.Now the natives of that land are called "Terrorist" for defending their own homes.Here's an idea, BRING  OUR  TROOPS  HOME  NOW!
Stop sending american's to the middle east.If someone tried to come into your home with guns pointed at you, what would you call them.
TERRORISTS.Would you be scared?
Of course.That's what our troops are to these people.Look in the mirror America.
We are the terrorists.</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498430</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30500232</id>
	<title>Are you sure the pattern was Mathematical ?</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261256280000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>It may very well have been a non-mathematical pattern<nobr> <wbr></nobr>...   (?)</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>It may very well have been a non-mathematical pattern .. .
( ? )</tokentext>
<sentencetext>It may very well have been a non-mathematical pattern ...
(?)</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498582</id>
	<title>Psychohistory begins.</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261239540000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>-1</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>See subject.</p><p>P.S. This shit is assinsine... I postin in a different topic ages ago... this in conjunction with the censorship system makes slashdot almost unusable. Hmmm perhaps "almost unusable" is their goal?</p><blockquote><div><p>Slow Down Cowboy!</p><p>Slashdot requires you to wait between each successful posting of a comment to allow everyone a fair chance at posting a comment.</p><p>It's been 9 minutes since you last successfully posted a comment</p><p>I still figure it's serverload protection from the ravages of perl.</p></div></blockquote></div>
	</htmltext>
<tokenext>See subject.P.S .
This shit is assinsine... I postin in a different topic ages ago... this in conjunction with the censorship system makes slashdot almost unusable .
Hmmm perhaps " almost unusable " is their goal ? Slow Down Cowboy ! Slashdot requires you to wait between each successful posting of a comment to allow everyone a fair chance at posting a comment.It 's been 9 minutes since you last successfully posted a commentI still figure it 's serverload protection from the ravages of perl .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>See subject.P.S.
This shit is assinsine... I postin in a different topic ages ago... this in conjunction with the censorship system makes slashdot almost unusable.
Hmmm perhaps "almost unusable" is their goal?Slow Down Cowboy!Slashdot requires you to wait between each successful posting of a comment to allow everyone a fair chance at posting a comment.It's been 9 minutes since you last successfully posted a commentI still figure it's serverload protection from the ravages of perl.
	</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30499682</id>
	<title>Re:Insurgent mathematics . . .</title>
	<author>gbarules2999</author>
	<datestamp>1261249620000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Funny</modclass>
	<modscore>5</modscore>
	<htmltext>It's easy to forget what sin is in the middle of a battlefield.</htmltext>
<tokenext>It 's easy to forget what sin is in the middle of a battlefield .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>It's easy to forget what sin is in the middle of a battlefield.</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498524</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30499504</id>
	<title>Re:I must be missing something</title>
	<author>Storchei</author>
	<datestamp>1261248060000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext><p><div class="quote"><p>I don't see what it is they think they've discovered</p></div><p>
It's quite straightforward, man. They discover a mathematical pattern that can be used <b>to kill more <i>enemies</i>(a.k.a. people)</b> <br> <br>
Now, THAT'S USEFUL!  (if you can't see the irony you're blind)<br> <br>
I think the instantaneous question after this report was published would be: <b>Why in hell money is spent in such a pointless research?</b> (pointless for people who pay the research, of course). Aren't there more important or necessary thing to spend the money?<br>
Anyway, more of the same..</p></div>
	</htmltext>
<tokenext>I do n't see what it is they think they 've discovered It 's quite straightforward , man .
They discover a mathematical pattern that can be used to kill more enemies ( a.k.a .
people ) Now , THAT 'S USEFUL !
( if you ca n't see the irony you 're blind ) I think the instantaneous question after this report was published would be : Why in hell money is spent in such a pointless research ?
( pointless for people who pay the research , of course ) .
Are n't there more important or necessary thing to spend the money ?
Anyway , more of the same. .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>I don't see what it is they think they've discovered
It's quite straightforward, man.
They discover a mathematical pattern that can be used to kill more enemies(a.k.a.
people)  
Now, THAT'S USEFUL!
(if you can't see the irony you're blind) 
I think the instantaneous question after this report was published would be: Why in hell money is spent in such a pointless research?
(pointless for people who pay the research, of course).
Aren't there more important or necessary thing to spend the money?
Anyway, more of the same..
	</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498498</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498684</id>
	<title>Asimov was right!</title>
	<author>PakProtector</author>
	<datestamp>1261240680000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext>Everyone tag this "psychohistory" or "seldonplan."</htmltext>
<tokenext>Everyone tag this " psychohistory " or " seldonplan .
"</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Everyone tag this "psychohistory" or "seldonplan.
"</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498498</id>
	<title>I must be missing something</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261238640000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Insightful</modclass>
	<modscore>5</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>
&nbsp; &nbsp; I don't see what it is they think they've discovered.   If you take a loose collection of 5000 people with a weak desire to cooperate you're going to get way more groupings of 10 than 100 than 1000.   The desire for safety in numbers is offset by the risk of exposure by size. In fact I'd have drawn almost exactly their curve if somebody had asked what the distribution would look like.</p><p>
&nbsp; &nbsp; If the likelihood of an event is a coupled with critical mass of groupings then the event distribution will follow pretty much the same curve.</p><p>
&nbsp; &nbsp; If somebody understands what it is these folks found could you explain it.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>    I do n't see what it is they think they 've discovered .
If you take a loose collection of 5000 people with a weak desire to cooperate you 're going to get way more groupings of 10 than 100 than 1000 .
The desire for safety in numbers is offset by the risk of exposure by size .
In fact I 'd have drawn almost exactly their curve if somebody had asked what the distribution would look like .
    If the likelihood of an event is a coupled with critical mass of groupings then the event distribution will follow pretty much the same curve .
    If somebody understands what it is these folks found could you explain it .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>
    I don't see what it is they think they've discovered.
If you take a loose collection of 5000 people with a weak desire to cooperate you're going to get way more groupings of 10 than 100 than 1000.
The desire for safety in numbers is offset by the risk of exposure by size.
In fact I'd have drawn almost exactly their curve if somebody had asked what the distribution would look like.
    If the likelihood of an event is a coupled with critical mass of groupings then the event distribution will follow pretty much the same curve.
    If somebody understands what it is these folks found could you explain it.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30499274</id>
	<title>STOP Illegal Bush/Cheney Wars for OIL NOW</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261246380000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext>Oh, wait. . .</htmltext>
<tokenext>Oh , wait .
. .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Oh, wait.
. .</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498430</id>
	<title>Uhuh</title>
	<author>jav1231</author>
	<datestamp>1261237620000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Funny</modclass>
	<modscore>4</modscore>
	<htmltext>I saw this on "Numb3rs!"</htmltext>
<tokenext>I saw this on " Numb3rs !
"</tokentext>
<sentencetext>I saw this on "Numb3rs!
"</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30499616</id>
	<title>Re:Uhuh</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261249020000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>numbERZ 4L5O pH19UrEd OuT h4XoR T4Lk.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>numbERZ 4L5O pH19UrEd OuT h4XoR T4Lk .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>numbERZ 4L5O pH19UrEd OuT h4XoR T4Lk.</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498430</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498698</id>
	<title>\_Everything\_ follows an approximate power law.</title>
	<author>John Hasler</author>
	<datestamp>1261240800000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>Consider, for example, the quality and snarkiness of comments on Slashdot.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>Consider , for example , the quality and snarkiness of comments on Slashdot .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Consider, for example, the quality and snarkiness of comments on Slashdot.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498660</id>
	<title>A more interesting pattern</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261240500000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Interestin</modclass>
	<modscore>3</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>I wonder what mathematical laws are in play that results in the reported number of insurgents killed during any attack by coalition forces weirdly hovering around 30. Google "30 Taliban killed", or "30 insurgents killed", or "30 militants killed" and you see a lot results going all the way back when the wars were started. See this blog entry <a href="http://securitycrank.wordpress.com/2009/12/07/winning-the-war-30-taliban-at-a-time/" title="wordpress.com" rel="nofollow">http://securitycrank.wordpress.com/2009/12/07/winning-the-war-30-taliban-at-a-time/</a> [wordpress.com] for more discussion.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>I wonder what mathematical laws are in play that results in the reported number of insurgents killed during any attack by coalition forces weirdly hovering around 30 .
Google " 30 Taliban killed " , or " 30 insurgents killed " , or " 30 militants killed " and you see a lot results going all the way back when the wars were started .
See this blog entry http : //securitycrank.wordpress.com/2009/12/07/winning-the-war-30-taliban-at-a-time/ [ wordpress.com ] for more discussion .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>I wonder what mathematical laws are in play that results in the reported number of insurgents killed during any attack by coalition forces weirdly hovering around 30.
Google "30 Taliban killed", or "30 insurgents killed", or "30 militants killed" and you see a lot results going all the way back when the wars were started.
See this blog entry http://securitycrank.wordpress.com/2009/12/07/winning-the-war-30-taliban-at-a-time/ [wordpress.com] for more discussion.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498852</id>
	<title>Need to see big picture.</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261242720000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>"Hmmm...useless might be an overstatement."</p><p>This is why western countries are having difficulty battling fanatics.  If you think that there are a few trouble makers that need to be dealt with, you won't win.  If you realize that 1 billion people in the Middle East, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Indonesia unconsciously push a constant amount of marginalized people to commit war crimes, then you can start to win.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>" Hmmm...useless might be an overstatement .
" This is why western countries are having difficulty battling fanatics .
If you think that there are a few trouble makers that need to be dealt with , you wo n't win .
If you realize that 1 billion people in the Middle East , Pakistan , Afghanistan , Indonesia unconsciously push a constant amount of marginalized people to commit war crimes , then you can start to win .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>"Hmmm...useless might be an overstatement.
"This is why western countries are having difficulty battling fanatics.
If you think that there are a few trouble makers that need to be dealt with, you won't win.
If you realize that 1 billion people in the Middle East, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Indonesia unconsciously push a constant amount of marginalized people to commit war crimes, then you can start to win.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30500396</id>
	<title>Re:Insurgent mathematics . . .</title>
	<author>ickleberry</author>
	<datestamp>1261215000000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Funny</modclass>
	<modscore>2</modscore>
	<htmltext>but if you're lucky you might get a tan</htmltext>
<tokenext>but if you 're lucky you might get a tan</tokentext>
<sentencetext>but if you're lucky you might get a tan</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30499682</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30502420</id>
	<title>This is not good</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261249920000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext>If the terrorists read this and <i>also</i> have the TSA manual, we're doomed.</htmltext>
<tokenext>If the terrorists read this and also have the TSA manual , we 're doomed .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>If the terrorists read this and also have the TSA manual, we're doomed.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498712</id>
	<title>Hello Captain Obvious!</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261241040000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Troll</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>The total amount of attack will/power stays the same, no matter what size the individual attacks are? No shit? I could have told you that too.<br>Together with other amazing facts, like that the amount of coffee in a can stays the same, no matter of the size and number of cups you fill with it.<nobr> <wbr></nobr>;)</p><p>I can even predict, that they do not actually stay the same, but in the biggest picture of e.g. one war, go in a curve, first rising strongly, then falling off slowly, only to be re-risen by big events (similar to the scandals / media coverage relationship).</p><p>Do I get the Nobel Prize now?<nobr> <wbr></nobr>;)</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>The total amount of attack will/power stays the same , no matter what size the individual attacks are ?
No shit ?
I could have told you that too.Together with other amazing facts , like that the amount of coffee in a can stays the same , no matter of the size and number of cups you fill with it .
; ) I can even predict , that they do not actually stay the same , but in the biggest picture of e.g .
one war , go in a curve , first rising strongly , then falling off slowly , only to be re-risen by big events ( similar to the scandals / media coverage relationship ) .Do I get the Nobel Prize now ?
; )</tokentext>
<sentencetext>The total amount of attack will/power stays the same, no matter what size the individual attacks are?
No shit?
I could have told you that too.Together with other amazing facts, like that the amount of coffee in a can stays the same, no matter of the size and number of cups you fill with it.
;)I can even predict, that they do not actually stay the same, but in the biggest picture of e.g.
one war, go in a curve, first rising strongly, then falling off slowly, only to be re-risen by big events (similar to the scandals / media coverage relationship).Do I get the Nobel Prize now?
;)</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498758</id>
	<title>Brilliant!</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261241460000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Flamebait</modclass>
	<modscore>-1</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>Yeah, let's post these findings for everyone to see so that the insurgents now can work on being even more random.  Matter of fact, in all our wisdom, let's also tell the world how to take down the world trade center or how exactly people can sneak items through the airport screeners.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>Yeah , let 's post these findings for everyone to see so that the insurgents now can work on being even more random .
Matter of fact , in all our wisdom , let 's also tell the world how to take down the world trade center or how exactly people can sneak items through the airport screeners .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Yeah, let's post these findings for everyone to see so that the insurgents now can work on being even more random.
Matter of fact, in all our wisdom, let's also tell the world how to take down the world trade center or how exactly people can sneak items through the airport screeners.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30499712</id>
	<title>Re:The 2.5 Exponent</title>
	<author>asterix\_2k1</author>
	<datestamp>1261249920000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>2012. Yes sir! That's when the really big attack is gonna be.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>2012 .
Yes sir !
That 's when the really big attack is gon na be .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>2012.
Yes sir!
That's when the really big attack is gonna be.</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498806</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498892</id>
	<title>Data</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261243080000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>Where would one go about finding the data they used in their models? I assume they went to the trouble of making it public since they themselves critized governments for not putting their data in the public.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>Where would one go about finding the data they used in their models ?
I assume they went to the trouble of making it public since they themselves critized governments for not putting their data in the public .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Where would one go about finding the data they used in their models?
I assume they went to the trouble of making it public since they themselves critized governments for not putting their data in the public.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30500634</id>
	<title>Patterns...</title>
	<author>Erinnys Tisiphone</author>
	<datestamp>1261218720000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Interestin</modclass>
	<modscore>2</modscore>
	<htmltext>"Restate my assumptions: One, Mathematics is the language of nature. Two, Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. Three: If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature. Evidence: The cycling of disease epidemics;the wax and wane of caribou populations; sun spot cycles; the rise and fall of the Nile. So, what about the stock market? The universe of numbers that represents the global economy. Millions of hands at work, billions of minds. A vast network, screaming with life. An organism. A natural organism. My hypothesis: Within the stock market, there is a pattern as well... Right in front of me... hiding behind the numbers. Always has been."</htmltext>
<tokenext>" Restate my assumptions : One , Mathematics is the language of nature .
Two , Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers .
Three : If you graph the numbers of any system , patterns emerge .
Therefore , there are patterns everywhere in nature .
Evidence : The cycling of disease epidemics ; the wax and wane of caribou populations ; sun spot cycles ; the rise and fall of the Nile .
So , what about the stock market ?
The universe of numbers that represents the global economy .
Millions of hands at work , billions of minds .
A vast network , screaming with life .
An organism .
A natural organism .
My hypothesis : Within the stock market , there is a pattern as well... Right in front of me... hiding behind the numbers .
Always has been .
"</tokentext>
<sentencetext>"Restate my assumptions: One, Mathematics is the language of nature.
Two, Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
Three: If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge.
Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature.
Evidence: The cycling of disease epidemics;the wax and wane of caribou populations; sun spot cycles; the rise and fall of the Nile.
So, what about the stock market?
The universe of numbers that represents the global economy.
Millions of hands at work, billions of minds.
A vast network, screaming with life.
An organism.
A natural organism.
My hypothesis: Within the stock market, there is a pattern as well... Right in front of me... hiding behind the numbers.
Always has been.
"</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498538</id>
	<title>It's a much simpler equation for non-guerilla wars</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261239180000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Interestin</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>It's actually a much simpler equation for non-guerilla (ie. traditional) warfare.</p><p>Take the War in Iraq, for instance. It basically boils down to:<br>
&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; (Crazy Corporate-Controlled Republicans) + (Lust for Oil) + (Mercenaries) + (Hatred for Brown People) = Unprovoked Invasion and War</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>It 's actually a much simpler equation for non-guerilla ( ie .
traditional ) warfare.Take the War in Iraq , for instance .
It basically boils down to :         ( Crazy Corporate-Controlled Republicans ) + ( Lust for Oil ) + ( Mercenaries ) + ( Hatred for Brown People ) = Unprovoked Invasion and War</tokentext>
<sentencetext>It's actually a much simpler equation for non-guerilla (ie.
traditional) warfare.Take the War in Iraq, for instance.
It basically boils down to:
        (Crazy Corporate-Controlled Republicans) + (Lust for Oil) + (Mercenaries) + (Hatred for Brown People) = Unprovoked Invasion and War</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30502138</id>
	<title>Download copy of article from Authors website</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261243140000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Informativ</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>You can get a copy of the pre-publication Nature paper "Common Ecology Quantifies Human Insurgency" as well as the more detailed supplementary info pdf at</p><p>http://www.mathematicsofwar.com</p><p>there is also a list on the site of other important papers for background reading about the research. A good resource to understand the topic. Also of interest is the website from co-author Sean Gourley at</p><p>http://wwww.seangourley.com</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>You can get a copy of the pre-publication Nature paper " Common Ecology Quantifies Human Insurgency " as well as the more detailed supplementary info pdf athttp : //www.mathematicsofwar.comthere is also a list on the site of other important papers for background reading about the research .
A good resource to understand the topic .
Also of interest is the website from co-author Sean Gourley athttp : //wwww.seangourley.com</tokentext>
<sentencetext>You can get a copy of the pre-publication Nature paper "Common Ecology Quantifies Human Insurgency" as well as the more detailed supplementary info pdf athttp://www.mathematicsofwar.comthere is also a list on the site of other important papers for background reading about the research.
A good resource to understand the topic.
Also of interest is the website from co-author Sean Gourley athttp://wwww.seangourley.com</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498814</id>
	<title>Does this mean...</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261242300000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>...that Bin-Laden is really a fractal?</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>...that Bin-Laden is really a fractal ?</tokentext>
<sentencetext>...that Bin-Laden is really a fractal?</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498528</id>
	<title>Predicting humans</title>
	<author>gmuslera</author>
	<datestamp>1261239060000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext>dont work when they know the predictions too. Even if is just to prove that they have free will.</htmltext>
<tokenext>dont work when they know the predictions too .
Even if is just to prove that they have free will .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>dont work when they know the predictions too.
Even if is just to prove that they have free will.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498672</id>
	<title>Really?</title>
	<author>cherokee158</author>
	<datestamp>1261240620000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>So, the bloody results of combat can be quantified using a few formulas and tables?</p><p>
&nbsp; I think a few wargame designers at Avalon Hill are shaking their heads and rolling their eyes right now.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>So , the bloody results of combat can be quantified using a few formulas and tables ?
  I think a few wargame designers at Avalon Hill are shaking their heads and rolling their eyes right now .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>So, the bloody results of combat can be quantified using a few formulas and tables?
  I think a few wargame designers at Avalon Hill are shaking their heads and rolling their eyes right now.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30500012</id>
	<title>Re:Psychohistory begins.</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261253340000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext>It's one of the penalties of posting as AC. Register, you dimwit.</htmltext>
<tokenext>It 's one of the penalties of posting as AC .
Register , you dimwit .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>It's one of the penalties of posting as AC.
Register, you dimwit.</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498582</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30499366</id>
	<title>Re:I must be missing something</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261246920000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>Long ago a famous mathematician/scientist (Lagrange?)  said that nearly any physical phenomenon can produce a straight line on a log-log scale. I can't remember who. <a href="http://cscs.umich.edu/~crshalizi/weblog/491.html" title="umich.edu" rel="nofollow">Here it is again.</a> [umich.edu]</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>Long ago a famous mathematician/scientist ( Lagrange ?
) said that nearly any physical phenomenon can produce a straight line on a log-log scale .
I ca n't remember who .
Here it is again .
[ umich.edu ]</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Long ago a famous mathematician/scientist (Lagrange?
)  said that nearly any physical phenomenon can produce a straight line on a log-log scale.
I can't remember who.
Here it is again.
[umich.edu]</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498710</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498710</id>
	<title>Re:I must be missing something</title>
	<author>forand</author>
	<datestamp>1261241040000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Informativ</modclass>
	<modscore>5</modscore>
	<htmltext>I believe the <a href="http://science.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=1484368&amp;cid=30498438" title="slashdot.org">post right above yours</a> [slashdot.org] brings the point home: the specific exponential power law followed appears to be unstable. That is if the frequency of attacks differs in a specific conflict the conflict ends shortly. The poster above nicely provided a link to a <a href="http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/sean\_gourley\_on\_the\_mathematics\_of\_war.html" title="ted.com">TED talk</a> [ted.com]
<br>
Also being able to draw a straight line on a log log plot is all well and good but if you get the slope off by even a small amount you will soon be orders of magnitude off in your predictions. Thus while you might expect a power-law distribution from simple arguments getting the specific value is much more difficult.</htmltext>
<tokenext>I believe the post right above yours [ slashdot.org ] brings the point home : the specific exponential power law followed appears to be unstable .
That is if the frequency of attacks differs in a specific conflict the conflict ends shortly .
The poster above nicely provided a link to a TED talk [ ted.com ] Also being able to draw a straight line on a log log plot is all well and good but if you get the slope off by even a small amount you will soon be orders of magnitude off in your predictions .
Thus while you might expect a power-law distribution from simple arguments getting the specific value is much more difficult .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>I believe the post right above yours [slashdot.org] brings the point home: the specific exponential power law followed appears to be unstable.
That is if the frequency of attacks differs in a specific conflict the conflict ends shortly.
The poster above nicely provided a link to a TED talk [ted.com]

Also being able to draw a straight line on a log log plot is all well and good but if you get the slope off by even a small amount you will soon be orders of magnitude off in your predictions.
Thus while you might expect a power-law distribution from simple arguments getting the specific value is much more difficult.</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498498</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30500044</id>
	<title>Re:Just Biology</title>
	<author>johntkucz</author>
	<datestamp>1261253880000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext>Insightful.</htmltext>
<tokenext>Insightful .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Insightful.</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498620</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30503316</id>
	<title>Re:Just Biology</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261315680000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext><blockquote><div><p>seems inherently universal to my small brain</p></div></blockquote><p>Screwed over by a power law, eh?</p></div>
	</htmltext>
<tokenext>seems inherently universal to my small brainScrewed over by a power law , eh ?</tokentext>
<sentencetext>seems inherently universal to my small brainScrewed over by a power law, eh?
	</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498620</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30500534</id>
	<title>Re:There was a TED talk on this</title>
	<author>mangu</author>
	<datestamp>1261217100000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext><blockquote><div><p>Sean Gourley shows that if the exponent is larger or smaller than 2.5, the war becomes unsustainable and ends fairly quickly.</p></div></blockquote><p>Nothing new under the sun. What he's saying it's that you shouldn't waste your efforts either in doing too many attacks that kill a few people each, or in doing a few attacks to kill a huge bunch of people each.</p></div>
	</htmltext>
<tokenext>Sean Gourley shows that if the exponent is larger or smaller than 2.5 , the war becomes unsustainable and ends fairly quickly.Nothing new under the sun .
What he 's saying it 's that you should n't waste your efforts either in doing too many attacks that kill a few people each , or in doing a few attacks to kill a huge bunch of people each .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Sean Gourley shows that if the exponent is larger or smaller than 2.5, the war becomes unsustainable and ends fairly quickly.Nothing new under the sun.
What he's saying it's that you shouldn't waste your efforts either in doing too many attacks that kill a few people each, or in doing a few attacks to kill a huge bunch of people each.
	</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498438</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30499576</id>
	<title>Re:A more interesting pattern</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261248540000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Interestin</modclass>
	<modscore>4</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>Ehhhh... I don't think so.</p><p>A series of searches of "x insurgents killed" yields:</p><p>2= 14,700<br>3= 30,700<br>4= 164,000<br>5= 20,000 results<br>10= 160,000<br>15= 64,000<br>20= 306,000<br>25= 41,000<br>30= 58,400<br>31= 10<br>32= 75,400<br>33= 4,460<br>34= 26,400<br>35= 36,000<br>40= 57,000<br>41= 484<br>42= 28,400<br>43= 9<br>44= 1<br>45= 9,180</p><p>I think it would be difficult to draw any conclusions about how many insurgents are killed at once. How do you decide when an incident starts and ends? Operations can last days. How close do they have to be to each other when they die? I can almost guarantee that we are taking out insurgents one by one or two by two for the most part. They don't run around in packs of 30, they sneak at night in pairs.</p><p>That's just my experience, though. Keep your fun little "23" theory.</p><p>-b</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>Ehhhh... I do n't think so.A series of searches of " x insurgents killed " yields : 2 = 14,7003 = 30,7004 = 164,0005 = 20,000 results10 = 160,00015 = 64,00020 = 306,00025 = 41,00030 = 58,40031 = 1032 = 75,40033 = 4,46034 = 26,40035 = 36,00040 = 57,00041 = 48442 = 28,40043 = 944 = 145 = 9,180I think it would be difficult to draw any conclusions about how many insurgents are killed at once .
How do you decide when an incident starts and ends ?
Operations can last days .
How close do they have to be to each other when they die ?
I can almost guarantee that we are taking out insurgents one by one or two by two for the most part .
They do n't run around in packs of 30 , they sneak at night in pairs.That 's just my experience , though .
Keep your fun little " 23 " theory.-b</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Ehhhh... I don't think so.A series of searches of "x insurgents killed" yields:2= 14,7003= 30,7004= 164,0005= 20,000 results10= 160,00015= 64,00020= 306,00025= 41,00030= 58,40031= 1032= 75,40033= 4,46034= 26,40035= 36,00040= 57,00041= 48442= 28,40043= 944= 145= 9,180I think it would be difficult to draw any conclusions about how many insurgents are killed at once.
How do you decide when an incident starts and ends?
Operations can last days.
How close do they have to be to each other when they die?
I can almost guarantee that we are taking out insurgents one by one or two by two for the most part.
They don't run around in packs of 30, they sneak at night in pairs.That's just my experience, though.
Keep your fun little "23" theory.-b</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498660</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30499224</id>
	<title>Re:Hari Seldon.</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261245780000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>-1</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>-1000 redundant. See my post:<br><a href="http://science.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=1484368&amp;cid=30498582" title="slashdot.org" rel="nofollow">http://science.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=1484368&amp;cid=30498582</a> [slashdot.org]<br>Saturday December 19, @10:19AM</p><p>Your post:<br>Saturday December 19, @10:36AM</p><p>Yup, redundant.</p><p>(this post was submitted &gt;4000 times, perl rep protection message up to 37 minutes now...)</p><blockquote><div><p>Slow Down Cowboy!</p><p>Slashdot requires you to wait between each successful posting of a comment to allow everyone a fair chance at posting a comment.</p></div></blockquote><p>Fair chance my ass! This guys gets credit for my post. Such bullshit. At least be honest about it. 37 minutes, see how this works? By the time I get this posted everybody will be done reading the thread.</p></div>
	</htmltext>
<tokenext>-1000 redundant .
See my post : http : //science.slashdot.org/comments.pl ? sid = 1484368&amp;cid = 30498582 [ slashdot.org ] Saturday December 19 , @ 10 : 19AMYour post : Saturday December 19 , @ 10 : 36AMYup , redundant .
( this post was submitted &gt; 4000 times , perl rep protection message up to 37 minutes now... ) Slow Down Cowboy ! Slashdot requires you to wait between each successful posting of a comment to allow everyone a fair chance at posting a comment.Fair chance my ass !
This guys gets credit for my post .
Such bullshit .
At least be honest about it .
37 minutes , see how this works ?
By the time I get this posted everybody will be done reading the thread .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>-1000 redundant.
See my post:http://science.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=1484368&amp;cid=30498582 [slashdot.org]Saturday December 19, @10:19AMYour post:Saturday December 19, @10:36AMYup, redundant.
(this post was submitted &gt;4000 times, perl rep protection message up to 37 minutes now...)Slow Down Cowboy!Slashdot requires you to wait between each successful posting of a comment to allow everyone a fair chance at posting a comment.Fair chance my ass!
This guys gets credit for my post.
Such bullshit.
At least be honest about it.
37 minutes, see how this works?
By the time I get this posted everybody will be done reading the thread.
	</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498668</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30499014</id>
	<title>I wonder what the exponent would be...</title>
	<author>BobMcD</author>
	<datestamp>1261244160000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Insightful</modclass>
	<modscore>4</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>...if we brought them all home?</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>...if we brought them all home ?</tokentext>
<sentencetext>...if we brought them all home?</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498588</id>
	<title>Re:There was a TED talk on this</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261239600000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>I didn't RTFA, but how can an exponent be larger or smaller than 2.5 at the same time??</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>I did n't RTFA , but how can an exponent be larger or smaller than 2.5 at the same time ?
?</tokentext>
<sentencetext>I didn't RTFA, but how can an exponent be larger or smaller than 2.5 at the same time?
?</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498438</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30500336</id>
	<title>Re:A more interesting pattern</title>
	<author>fbjon</author>
	<datestamp>1261214220000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext>I don't really see the pattern. Does 30 somehow stand out more than other numbers, such as 20, 25, or 40 etc? Not that I can see. Also, googling for "x people killed" is completely misleading, as it only says in how many articles/blogs that phrase appears, which depends on whether some of those incidents were more or less interesting to the media than others. <p>That blog entry links to this article: <a href="http://humaimtiaz.wordpress.com/timeline-pakistan-2009/" title="wordpress.com">Timeline Pakistan 2009</a> [wordpress.com]. Looking through those, I see no pattern at all. In fact, I'd argue that there is a stronger pattern for eight, but still pretty insignificant.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>I do n't really see the pattern .
Does 30 somehow stand out more than other numbers , such as 20 , 25 , or 40 etc ?
Not that I can see .
Also , googling for " x people killed " is completely misleading , as it only says in how many articles/blogs that phrase appears , which depends on whether some of those incidents were more or less interesting to the media than others .
That blog entry links to this article : Timeline Pakistan 2009 [ wordpress.com ] .
Looking through those , I see no pattern at all .
In fact , I 'd argue that there is a stronger pattern for eight , but still pretty insignificant .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>I don't really see the pattern.
Does 30 somehow stand out more than other numbers, such as 20, 25, or 40 etc?
Not that I can see.
Also, googling for "x people killed" is completely misleading, as it only says in how many articles/blogs that phrase appears, which depends on whether some of those incidents were more or less interesting to the media than others.
That blog entry links to this article: Timeline Pakistan 2009 [wordpress.com].
Looking through those, I see no pattern at all.
In fact, I'd argue that there is a stronger pattern for eight, but still pretty insignificant.</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498660</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498966</id>
	<title>So apply this to 911</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261243800000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>It looks like we have only another 250 years until it happens again.</p><p>Ahhhh, panic.  Everybody buy your duct tape.</p><p>This is going to make that 200 year was look short.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>It looks like we have only another 250 years until it happens again.Ahhhh , panic .
Everybody buy your duct tape.This is going to make that 200 year was look short .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>It looks like we have only another 250 years until it happens again.Ahhhh, panic.
Everybody buy your duct tape.This is going to make that 200 year was look short.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30500664</id>
	<title>http://xpda.com/bs.jpg</title>
	<author>edibobb</author>
	<datestamp>1261219020000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext>You can fit a curve to one set of data. It does not follow that all other data sets will be similar. There are huge differences in the environments here -- enough to put a BS stamp on this article.</htmltext>
<tokenext>You can fit a curve to one set of data .
It does not follow that all other data sets will be similar .
There are huge differences in the environments here -- enough to put a BS stamp on this article .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>You can fit a curve to one set of data.
It does not follow that all other data sets will be similar.
There are huge differences in the environments here -- enough to put a BS stamp on this article.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498942</id>
	<title>Re:Uhuh</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261243560000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>The math in 'Numb3rs' is the IT version of "A GUI interface in VB to track an IP address" in CSI:NY...</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>The math in 'Numb3rs ' is the IT version of " A GUI interface in VB to track an IP address " in CSI : NY.. .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>The math in 'Numb3rs' is the IT version of "A GUI interface in VB to track an IP address" in CSI:NY...</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498430</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498568</id>
	<title>MMPI Comparison</title>
	<author>smitty777</author>
	<datestamp>1261239420000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>This is a really interesting article.  Although the point out the weaknesses  of the theories behind the attacks, it is interesting that there is a pattern at all. Perhaps one way to look at this might be the same way we determined the validity of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI). Basically, the researchers looked for patterns within certain target groups (e.g., depressed, schizophrenic, bipolar) and detected answer patterns. In the same way, detecting the patterns of attack without attempting to determine the causality might still provide the best predictive power.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>This is a really interesting article .
Although the point out the weaknesses of the theories behind the attacks , it is interesting that there is a pattern at all .
Perhaps one way to look at this might be the same way we determined the validity of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory ( MMPI ) .
Basically , the researchers looked for patterns within certain target groups ( e.g. , depressed , schizophrenic , bipolar ) and detected answer patterns .
In the same way , detecting the patterns of attack without attempting to determine the causality might still provide the best predictive power .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>This is a really interesting article.
Although the point out the weaknesses  of the theories behind the attacks, it is interesting that there is a pattern at all.
Perhaps one way to look at this might be the same way we determined the validity of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI).
Basically, the researchers looked for patterns within certain target groups (e.g., depressed, schizophrenic, bipolar) and detected answer patterns.
In the same way, detecting the patterns of attack without attempting to determine the causality might still provide the best predictive power.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30499630</id>
	<title>Re:A more interesting pattern</title>
	<author>sznupi</author>
	<datestamp>1261249140000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>If true, it might have something to do with the max size of close social group that humans form; it falls somewhere in "up to 30" range.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>If true , it might have something to do with the max size of close social group that humans form ; it falls somewhere in " up to 30 " range .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>If true, it might have something to do with the max size of close social group that humans form; it falls somewhere in "up to 30" range.</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498660</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30501560</id>
	<title>Re:Just Biology</title>
	<author>martin-boundary</author>
	<datestamp>1261232220000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Interestin</modclass>
	<modscore>2</modscore>
	<htmltext><blockquote><div><p>The basic idea of power laws -- lots of small
  versions of a thing, only a few big ones, and a smooth distribution between -- seems inherently
  universal to my small brain.</p></div>
</blockquote><p>
The reason the basic idea sounds familiar to not just you but everybody here is that it is
the characterizing property of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal" title="wikipedia.org">fractals</a> [wikipedia.org].
I wouldn't go so far as to relate this idea to biology per se, however. It commonly occurs in
physics as well.
</p><p>
Intuitively, fractals (and therefore power laws) ought to arise whenever a
finite resource is split among a large number of independent processes, which are all identical
and have no limit on resource consumption. So if you look at your examples, there's a resource
limit. But if you look at other examples, such as the wealth of individuals within a country, then
there is a power law because there's (approximately) no limit to how much an individual can
accumulate, but the total amount of money in the economy is still a finite resource.</p></div>
	</htmltext>
<tokenext>The basic idea of power laws -- lots of small versions of a thing , only a few big ones , and a smooth distribution between -- seems inherently universal to my small brain .
The reason the basic idea sounds familiar to not just you but everybody here is that it is the characterizing property of fractals [ wikipedia.org ] .
I would n't go so far as to relate this idea to biology per se , however .
It commonly occurs in physics as well .
Intuitively , fractals ( and therefore power laws ) ought to arise whenever a finite resource is split among a large number of independent processes , which are all identical and have no limit on resource consumption .
So if you look at your examples , there 's a resource limit .
But if you look at other examples , such as the wealth of individuals within a country , then there is a power law because there 's ( approximately ) no limit to how much an individual can accumulate , but the total amount of money in the economy is still a finite resource .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>The basic idea of power laws -- lots of small
  versions of a thing, only a few big ones, and a smooth distribution between -- seems inherently
  universal to my small brain.
The reason the basic idea sounds familiar to not just you but everybody here is that it is
the characterizing property of fractals [wikipedia.org].
I wouldn't go so far as to relate this idea to biology per se, however.
It commonly occurs in
physics as well.
Intuitively, fractals (and therefore power laws) ought to arise whenever a
finite resource is split among a large number of independent processes, which are all identical
and have no limit on resource consumption.
So if you look at your examples, there's a resource
limit.
But if you look at other examples, such as the wealth of individuals within a country, then
there is a power law because there's (approximately) no limit to how much an individual can
accumulate, but the total amount of money in the economy is still a finite resource.
	</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498620</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498858</id>
	<title>The Art of War</title>
	<author>cenc</author>
	<datestamp>1261242840000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Interestin</modclass>
	<modscore>2</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>Yea, who would have thought that war follows a predictable (even mathematical) pattern.</p><p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The\_Art\_of\_War" title="wikipedia.org">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The\_Art\_of\_War</a> [wikipedia.org]</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>Yea , who would have thought that war follows a predictable ( even mathematical ) pattern.http : //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The \ _Art \ _of \ _War [ wikipedia.org ]</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Yea, who would have thought that war follows a predictable (even mathematical) pattern.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The\_Art\_of\_War [wikipedia.org]</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30499644</id>
	<title>Re:Psychohistory begins.</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261249200000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>Well, well look at that, modded down for a good post. So I happen to state my frustration with the slashdot censorship system too. Oops, guess we mustn't let the truth of that out!</p><p>*insert "this message was submitted several thousand times and delayed by x minutes" statement here*<nobr> <wbr></nobr>...actually, a new record... just past 56 minutes and must well over 3000 submissions...</p><p>The really should randomise the position of the submit button to make this harder.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>Well , well look at that , modded down for a good post .
So I happen to state my frustration with the slashdot censorship system too .
Oops , guess we must n't let the truth of that out !
* insert " this message was submitted several thousand times and delayed by x minutes " statement here * ...actually , a new record... just past 56 minutes and must well over 3000 submissions...The really should randomise the position of the submit button to make this harder .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Well, well look at that, modded down for a good post.
So I happen to state my frustration with the slashdot censorship system too.
Oops, guess we mustn't let the truth of that out!
*insert "this message was submitted several thousand times and delayed by x minutes" statement here* ...actually, a new record... just past 56 minutes and must well over 3000 submissions...The really should randomise the position of the submit button to make this harder.</sentencetext>
	<parent>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498582</parent>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498642</id>
	<title>The WERE following a pattern</title>
	<author>nurb432</author>
	<datestamp>1261240260000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>Publishing this just upset the pattern. Knowledge should not be released to the public as they can use it for bad purposes!! They are just supporting the terrorists, warning them of their mistakes.</p><p>( just being sarcastic here.. people are stupid, they will ALWAYS follow patterns, and information should always be free )</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>Publishing this just upset the pattern .
Knowledge should not be released to the public as they can use it for bad purposes ! !
They are just supporting the terrorists , warning them of their mistakes .
( just being sarcastic here.. people are stupid , they will ALWAYS follow patterns , and information should always be free )</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Publishing this just upset the pattern.
Knowledge should not be released to the public as they can use it for bad purposes!!
They are just supporting the terrorists, warning them of their mistakes.
( just being sarcastic here.. people are stupid, they will ALWAYS follow patterns, and information should always be free )</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30499232</id>
	<title>Calculate this</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261245900000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Troll</modclass>
	<modscore>-1</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>Kill'em all, let allah sort'em out.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>Kill'em all , let allah sort'em out .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Kill'em all, let allah sort'em out.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30499560</id>
	<title>Every collective human endeavor does this</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261248420000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Interestin</modclass>
	<modscore>4</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>Power laws are ubiquitous in human affairs - almost everything we do as a group involves power laws. This works for the size of cities and the sale of books and traffic to web sites, so I am not surprised it also happens in insurgent attacks.</p><p>Whether that will actually result in the effectiveness of Army tactics is another question, and, frankly, I am dubious. The sale of hit records follows a power law, but knowing that doesn't make me into a better musician.</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>Power laws are ubiquitous in human affairs - almost everything we do as a group involves power laws .
This works for the size of cities and the sale of books and traffic to web sites , so I am not surprised it also happens in insurgent attacks.Whether that will actually result in the effectiveness of Army tactics is another question , and , frankly , I am dubious .
The sale of hit records follows a power law , but knowing that does n't make me into a better musician .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Power laws are ubiquitous in human affairs - almost everything we do as a group involves power laws.
This works for the size of cities and the sale of books and traffic to web sites, so I am not surprised it also happens in insurgent attacks.Whether that will actually result in the effectiveness of Army tactics is another question, and, frankly, I am dubious.
The sale of hit records follows a power law, but knowing that doesn't make me into a better musician.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30501754</id>
	<title>there's an opportunity here</title>
	<author>alizard</author>
	<datestamp>1261235520000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>1</modscore>
	<htmltext><b>for the insurgents</b>. As soon as this analysis becomes part of DOD operational planning, they can choose to attack in ways that don't match the pattern.</htmltext>
<tokenext>for the insurgents .
As soon as this analysis becomes part of DOD operational planning , they can choose to attack in ways that do n't match the pattern .</tokentext>
<sentencetext>for the insurgents.
As soon as this analysis becomes part of DOD operational planning, they can choose to attack in ways that don't match the pattern.</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498524</id>
	<title>Insurgent mathematics . . .</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261239000000</datestamp>
	<modclass>Funny</modclass>
	<modscore>4</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>Insurgent: "Hey, chief, there's a big column of Americans coming!  Let's skank 'em!"
</p><p>Chief: "Hold on, let me get out my calculator . . . damn it!  I should have paid more attention to the Linear Programming and Game Theory courses at the Madrasah!  Go ahead and attack . . . then turn on CNN to see if we got any media exposure.  And please bring me some more pencils and paper . . . this mathematically based insurgency strategy *really* sucks!"</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>Insurgent : " Hey , chief , there 's a big column of Americans coming !
Let 's skank 'em !
" Chief : " Hold on , let me get out my calculator .
. .
damn it !
I should have paid more attention to the Linear Programming and Game Theory courses at the Madrasah !
Go ahead and attack .
. .
then turn on CNN to see if we got any media exposure .
And please bring me some more pencils and paper .
. .
this mathematically based insurgency strategy * really * sucks !
"</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Insurgent: "Hey, chief, there's a big column of Americans coming!
Let's skank 'em!
"
Chief: "Hold on, let me get out my calculator .
. .
damn it!
I should have paid more attention to the Linear Programming and Game Theory courses at the Madrasah!
Go ahead and attack .
. .
then turn on CNN to see if we got any media exposure.
And please bring me some more pencils and paper .
. .
this mathematically based insurgency strategy *really* sucks!
"</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498772</id>
	<title>Johnson?</title>
	<author>dandart</author>
	<datestamp>1261241700000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext>The same Neil Johnson who did the 200th anniversary time-based Christmas Lectures?</htmltext>
<tokenext>The same Neil Johnson who did the 200th anniversary time-based Christmas Lectures ?</tokentext>
<sentencetext>The same Neil Johnson who did the 200th anniversary time-based Christmas Lectures?</sentencetext>
</comment>
<comment>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30500158</id>
	<title>This Island Earth</title>
	<author>Anonymous</author>
	<datestamp>1261255260000</datestamp>
	<modclass>None</modclass>
	<modscore>0</modscore>
	<htmltext><p>Anyone read "This Island Earth"?</p></htmltext>
<tokenext>Anyone read " This Island Earth " ?</tokentext>
<sentencetext>Anyone read "This Island Earth"?</sentencetext>
</comment>
<thread>
	<id>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#thread_09_12_19_1255259_13</id>
	<commentlist>http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30500044
http://www.semanticweb.org/ontologies/ConversationInstances.owl#comment09_12_19_1255259.30498620
</commentlist>
</thread>
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