CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN
Accordingly , a vote is needed , indeed mandatory , to designate Debbie Danker , or her successor , as the FOMC 's Chief FOIA Officer , with authority to `` subdelegate '' duties as appropriate .
MS. BIES
The moderation in energy prices and the growth in consumer income will continue to add support to the economy going forward .
MS. BIES
However , the 20 percent drop in purchase mortgage applications means that mortgage brokers are earning a lot less income .
MS. BIES
If they do n't close a transaction , most of them get no paycheck because three out of four mortgages are originated not in financial institutions but by independent brokers .
MS. BIES
I 'm hearing from a couple of real estate brokers that people who may have wanted to sell their homes or may have put them up for sale are withdrawing them from the market .
MS. BIES
So predatory lending is rearing its head at the lower end of the scale , and it 's something we have to continue to watch for .
MS. BIES
Let me just make a few comments and give you recent feedback from some exams and dialogues with brokers that I 'd like to share with you .
MR. POOLE
That 's a pretty substantial hit for the world 's largest retailer -- of course , that 's mostly U.S. business .
MR. POOLE
My FedEx contact said that FedEx is increasing its capital expenditures this year , and 75 percent of the spending is for capacity expansion .
MR. POOLE
My view is that , in recent years , companies have had rather contained or constrained capital expenditures , and firms worked hard to be disciplined in cost control to make sure they did n't expand capacity until they really needed it .
MR. POOLE
So maybe what we 're seeing is the long-awaited and long-desired shift in the composition of GDP toward more business investment and less consumption , and that change in mix would be very healthy .
MR. POOLE
I 'm going to make an assertion that 's probably a little too bold , but I think it 's basically correct : If energy prices stay where they are , in the long run full pass-through must occur .
MR. POOLE
There 's an upfront 17.7 percent pay increase , but it reflects the fact that there have been no increases since the previous contact expired in 2003 , so there 's a makeup there .
MR. POOLE
Wal-Mart -- and Richard talked about that a bit -- has a substantial piece of its business , but by no means all of it , with lower-income consumers .
MR. POOLE
I guess that the companies producing those large trucks and engines are fully occupied this year , and then there 's going to be a slack period .
MR. POOLE
What 's happening there is that , because of the high fuel surcharges and the improved ground service , quite a number of customers are shifting from express air , which is much more expensive , to ground .
MR. POOLE
I just wanted to make that comment because it looks to me as though we 're in a situation in which oil is expected to remain around $ 70 a barrel for an indefinite future and those adjustments are going to be taking place continuously .
MR. POOLE
Other types of pass-through occur through companies ' substituting energy-saving technology -- for example , to reduce energy intensity -- but such technologies do n't come free .
MR. POOLE
The slower growth in consumption likely reflects the pressures on lower-income consumers , and we have limited spending capacity , perhaps for many consumers , because the saving rate is already so low .
MR. POOLE
An example that my contact gave me was that right after receiving paychecks , which generally come at the end of the month and the middle of the month , consumers are buying large economy-size packages of stuff that comes that way .
MR. POOLE
If we 're going to avoid a long-run effect on the price level , higher energy prices must be offset by lower prices elsewhere , so that this becomes a change in relative prices without an effect on the aggregate price level .
MR. STONE
It 's true that the data on core inflation and inflation expectations and our own recent decline in survey measures of prices paid and received are encouraging .
MR. STONE
All signs point to a strong rebound of growth this quarter , after the temporary weakness in the fourth quarter .
MR. STONE
Retail sales in our District are rising only modestly , but retailers tell us that weaknesses in February were weather-related and that they expect a pickup in April .
MR. STONE
Indeed , more than half the respondents to a special question on our manufacturing survey said that they were having trouble filling openings because of the lack of qualified applicants .
MR. STERN
The bottom line of the meeting , I would say , was that the comments overall track pretty well with the Greenbook forecast of housing activity -- that is , both a further and a prolonged slump in housing .
MR. STERN
In contrast , and on a somewhat more positive note , the people who are also in nonresidential construction -- in particular , office and retail development -- thought that the outlook was promising , indeed positive , and are seeing a lot of activity in that business .
MR. STERN
The housing situation notwithstanding , I remain somewhat more optimistic about our prospects for real growth both in ’07 and in ’08 than the Greenbook .
MR. STERN
There was little expectation among this group of improvement in housing in the next several months at least , and I would say not a whole heck of a lot of confidence that there was improvement in store even out beyond that , maybe as you get later into ' 07 .
MR. STERN
It was reported that so-called investors have disappeared entirely from many markets and that inventories of unsold homes are rising and the extent of the increase may be understated by the published data .