MR. SANTOMERO
The bottom line is that I agree with the Greenbook 's assessment that the economy continues to have positive momentum .
MR. KOHN
If the dollar declines substantially , import prices will increase , reducing foreign competitive pressure .
MR. KOHN
February 1-2 , 2005 107 of 177 My projection for core PCE inflation for 2005 and 2006 that goes with this path of output is slightly higher than the staff forecast .
MR. KOHN
Now , this is particularly noteworthy in that one might have expected the previous run-up in energy prices and the strength in productivity increases in recent years to put upward pressure on compensation gains .
MS. BIES
This is not a huge risk , but when I look at the Greenbook projection compared to various private-sector forecasts , the Greenbook 's inflation forecast is at the lower end of the range of the Blue Chip forecasts .
MR. STERN
Consumer spending activity is continuing to expand , and reports on capital spending and commentary associated with capital spending from directors are really quite strong overall .
MR. STERN
As for the anecdotes , discussions with business leaders in our District and an examination of District economic data for the most part yield positive conclusions .
MR. STERN
First , is the recent reduction in the Greenbook forecast roughly appropriate , or will the economy do appreciably worse or possibly significantly better than that ?
MS. YELLEN
Should longer-term yields increase , growth could fall well short of the Greenbook projection , as shown in an alternative simulation .
MS. YELLEN
Businesses have also been spending , February 1-2 , 2005 86 of 177 The weaker dollar continues to benefit District exporters who report booming demand for their products .
MR. SANTOMERO
The current and future price indexes in our manufacturing survey moderated in June , but remained at relatively high levels .
MR. SANTOMERO
Regional business contacts remain upbeat and generally expect an improvement in the region 's economy in the months ahead .
MS. BIES
While recent inflation numbers are very well behaved , the Greenbook does reflect a rise in the core inflation forecast over the next year .
MS. BIES
Their number one concern is high fuel costs , ranking above health care costs for the first time .
MR. POOLE
93 , MR. POOLE. , '' Secondly , and this goes in part to the question President Moskow asked , we have somewhat of a mixed situation in terms of the forecast .
MR. SLIFMAN
Moreover , the depressing effect of labor market slack -LRB- shown in the middle right panel -RRB- is projected to diminish over the projection period .
MR. SLIFMAN
As you know from reading the Greenbook , the only material change in our forecast since the December FOMC meeting concerns prospects for the near term .
MR. SLIFMAN
In any event , we see no reason to alter our first-quarter forecast as a result of the BEA 's fourth-quarter GDP estimate .
MR. SANTOMERO
Leading indicators are signaling continued solid growth in New Jersey and Delaware but more modest growth in Pennsylvania .
MR. SANTOMERO
While our forecasts are similar to the Greenbook 's with respect to consumer spending and total GDP , there are some key differences .
MS. HOLCOMB
The Dallas staff 's projections for the unemployment rate were also quite close to the Board staff 's outlook .
MS. HOLCOMB
In November , the Committee was still focusing on headwinds confronting the economy , while in December the discussion had shifted to tailwinds .
MS. JOHNSON
The baseline forecast this time calls for economic activity abroad to continue expanding at about that pace through the end of 2007 .
MS. JOHNSON
For these countries , long-term interest rates remain low , ranging from about 1 1/2 percent in Japan to 4 1/4 percent in the United Kingdom .
MS. JOHNSON
In Latin America , a sharp rebound in Mexican GDP growth raised the average for the region despite a very weak quarter in Brazil .
MR. FERGUSON
So by and large , in terms of the second reason , I 'd say the incoming data are consistent with a pretty good outlook .
MS. JOHNSON
57 , MS. JOHNSON. , '' The staff outlook for real GDP growth abroad is little changed this time from that in the June Greenbook .
VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER
156 , VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER. , '' We have n't changed our view of the national outlook significantly since the last meeting .
MR. WILLIAMS
117 , MR. WILLIAMS. , '' I think that the Greenbook forecast , as I understand it -- and maybe Dave June 29-30 , 2005 43 of 234 prices and takes into account the kind of models that Josh was discussing .
CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN
Let 's move on to the chart show presentations by Steve Oliner , Dave Wilcox , and Mike Leahy . ''
MS. PIANALTO
Throughout this policy tightening cycle , I 've been focused on getting the fed funds rate back into the neutral range .
MR. FERGUSON
The set of forecasts that I looked at is pretty obvious : the Greenbook , the SPF -LSB- Survey of Professional Forecasters -RSB- CPI forecast , the CPI random walk , and the median CPI random walk using the Cleveland median CPI .
MR. STERN
I call it promising not because I 'm thinking about Europe or Japan , but because I 'm thinking about China and India and some of their smaller brethren .
MS. MINEHAN
In that regard , I found the Greenbook alternatives focused on a spending boom and on a boom with rising inflation expectations very interesting .
MR. LACKER
55 , MR. LACKER. , '' I share President Poole 's longing for more understanding of the productivity forecast .
MR. REINHART
-LSB- Laughter -RSB- This exhibit takes as a starting point the statement issued in September .
CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN
February 1-2 , 2005 4 of 177 For Secretary and Economist , Vincent Reinhart ; Deputy Secretary , Deborah Danker ; Assistant Secretary , Michelle Smith ; General Counsel , Scott Alvarez ; Deputy General Counsel , Thomas Baxter ; Economists , Karen Johnson and David Stockton ; Associate Economists , Thomas Connors , David Howard , Brian Madigan , Steven Oliner , David Wilcox , Charles Evans , Loretta Mester , Arthur Rolnick , Harvey Rosenblum , and Joseph Tracy . ''