FOMC/FOMC20050503meeting/FOMC20050503meeting--90.txt MR. SANTOMERO The bottom line is that I agree with the Greenbook 's assessment that the economy continues to have positive momentum . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--154.txt MR. KOHN If the dollar declines substantially , import prices will increase , reducing foreign competitive pressure . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--154.txt MR. KOHN February 1-2 , 2005 107 of 177 My projection for core PCE inflation for 2005 and 2006 that goes with this path of output is slightly higher than the staff forecast . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--154.txt MR. KOHN Now , this is particularly noteworthy in that one might have expected the previous run-up in energy prices and the strength in productivity increases in recent years to put upward pressure on compensation gains . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--164.txt MS. BIES This is not a huge risk , but when I look at the Greenbook projection compared to various private-sector forecasts , the Greenbook 's inflation forecast is at the lower end of the range of the Blue Chip forecasts . FOMC/FOMC20050503meeting/FOMC20050503meeting--81.txt MR. STERN Consumer spending activity is continuing to expand , and reports on capital spending and commentary associated with capital spending from directors are really quite strong overall . FOMC/FOMC20050503meeting/FOMC20050503meeting--81.txt MR. STERN As for the anecdotes , discussions with business leaders in our District and an examination of District economic data for the most part yield positive conclusions . FOMC/FOMC20050503meeting/FOMC20050503meeting--81.txt MR. STERN First , is the recent reduction in the Greenbook forecast roughly appropriate , or will the economy do appreciably worse or possibly significantly better than that ? FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--131.txt MS. YELLEN Should longer-term yields increase , growth could fall well short of the Greenbook projection , as shown in an alternative simulation . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--131.txt MS. YELLEN Businesses have also been spending , February 1-2 , 2005 86 of 177 The weaker dollar continues to benefit District exporters who report booming demand for their products . FOMC/FOMC20050630meeting/FOMC20050630meeting--354.txt MR. SANTOMERO The current and future price indexes in our manufacturing survey moderated in June , but remained at relatively high levels . FOMC/FOMC20050630meeting/FOMC20050630meeting--354.txt MR. SANTOMERO Regional business contacts remain upbeat and generally expect an improvement in the region 's economy in the months ahead . FOMC/FOMC20050920meeting/FOMC20050920meeting--106.txt MS. BIES While recent inflation numbers are very well behaved , the Greenbook does reflect a rise in the core inflation forecast over the next year . FOMC/FOMC20050920meeting/FOMC20050920meeting--106.txt MS. BIES Their number one concern is high fuel costs , ranking above health care costs for the first time . FOMC/FOMC20051101meeting/FOMC20051101meeting--95.txt MR. POOLE 93 , MR. POOLE. , '' Secondly , and this goes in part to the question President Moskow asked , we have somewhat of a mixed situation in terms of the forecast . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--92.txt MR. SLIFMAN Moreover , the depressing effect of labor market slack -LRB- shown in the middle right panel -RRB- is projected to diminish over the projection period . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--92.txt MR. SLIFMAN As you know from reading the Greenbook , the only material change in our forecast since the December FOMC meeting concerns prospects for the near term . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--92.txt MR. SLIFMAN In any event , we see no reason to alter our first-quarter forecast as a result of the BEA 's fourth-quarter GDP estimate . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--133.txt MR. SANTOMERO Leading indicators are signaling continued solid growth in New Jersey and Delaware but more modest growth in Pennsylvania . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--133.txt MR. SANTOMERO While our forecasts are similar to the Greenbook 's with respect to consumer spending and total GDP , there are some key differences . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--145.txt MS. HOLCOMB The Dallas staff 's projections for the unemployment rate were also quite close to the Board staff 's outlook . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--145.txt MS. HOLCOMB In November , the Committee was still focusing on headwinds confronting the economy , while in December the discussion had shifted to tailwinds . FOMC/FOMC20051213meeting/FOMC20051213meeting--28.txt MS. JOHNSON The baseline forecast this time calls for economic activity abroad to continue expanding at about that pace through the end of 2007 . FOMC/FOMC20051213meeting/FOMC20051213meeting--28.txt MS. JOHNSON For these countries , long-term interest rates remain low , ranging from about 1 1/2 percent in Japan to 4 1/4 percent in the United Kingdom . FOMC/FOMC20051213meeting/FOMC20051213meeting--28.txt MS. JOHNSON In Latin America , a sharp rebound in Mexican GDP growth raised the average for the region despite a very weak quarter in Brazil . FOMC/FOMC20050630meeting/FOMC20050630meeting--376.txt MR. FERGUSON So by and large , in terms of the second reason , I 'd say the incoming data are consistent with a pretty good outlook . FOMC/FOMC20050809meeting/FOMC20050809meeting--59.txt MS. JOHNSON 57 , MS. JOHNSON. , '' The staff outlook for real GDP growth abroad is little changed this time from that in the June Greenbook . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--158.txt VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER 156 , VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER. , '' We have n't changed our view of the national outlook significantly since the last meeting . FOMC/FOMC20050630meeting/FOMC20050630meeting--119.txt MR. WILLIAMS 117 , MR. WILLIAMS. , '' I think that the Greenbook forecast , as I understand it -- and maybe Dave June 29-30 , 2005 43 of 234 prices and takes into account the kind of models that Josh was discussing . FOMC/FOMC20050630meeting/FOMC20050630meeting--246.txt CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN Let 's move on to the chart show presentations by Steve Oliner , Dave Wilcox , and Mike Leahy . '' FOMC/FOMC20050503meeting/FOMC20050503meeting--86.txt MS. PIANALTO Throughout this policy tightening cycle , I 've been focused on getting the fed funds rate back into the neutral range . FOMC/FOMC20050809meeting/FOMC20050809meeting--167.txt MR. FERGUSON The set of forecasts that I looked at is pretty obvious : the Greenbook , the SPF -LSB- Survey of Professional Forecasters -RSB- CPI forecast , the CPI random walk , and the median CPI random walk using the Cleveland median CPI . FOMC/FOMC20050809meeting/FOMC20050809meeting--143.txt MR. STERN I call it promising not because I 'm thinking about Europe or Japan , but because I 'm thinking about China and India and some of their smaller brethren . FOMC/FOMC20050322meeting/FOMC20050322meeting--107.txt MS. MINEHAN In that regard , I found the Greenbook alternatives focused on a spending boom and on a boom with rising inflation expectations very interesting . FOMC/FOMC20051213meeting/FOMC20051213meeting--57.txt MR. LACKER 55 , MR. LACKER. , '' I share President Poole 's longing for more understanding of the productivity forecast . FOMC/FOMC20051101meeting/FOMC20051101meeting--152.txt MR. REINHART -LSB- Laughter -RSB- This exhibit takes as a starting point the statement issued in September . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--11.txt CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN February 1-2 , 2005 4 of 177 For Secretary and Economist , Vincent Reinhart ; Deputy Secretary , Deborah Danker ; Assistant Secretary , Michelle Smith ; General Counsel , Scott Alvarez ; Deputy General Counsel , Thomas Baxter ; Economists , Karen Johnson and David Stockton ; Associate Economists , Thomas Connors , David Howard , Brian Madigan , Steven Oliner , David Wilcox , Charles Evans , Loretta Mester , Arthur Rolnick , Harvey Rosenblum , and Joseph Tracy . ''