FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080109confcall--13.txt MR. STOCKTON Going forward , the higher oil prices that I referenced earlier also leave a clear imprint on projected inflation . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080109confcall--13.txt MR. STOCKTON The steep decline in the manufacturing ISM in December was both unexpected and of a magnitude well outside the normal volatility in the data . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080805meeting--104.txt MR. EVANS It is my interpretation that our current accommodative monetary policy and suite of lending facilities are set to mitigate severe downside risks and the systemic risks that you mentioned earlier , Mr. Chairman . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080430meeting--215.txt MR. CLOUSE We have observed depository institutions regularly bidding for funds in the market at rates above the primary credit rate . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080318meeting--154.txt MR. SAPENARO 152 , MR. SAPENARO. , '' Mr. Chairman , excluding for the moment the market 's expectations of a significant downward policy move at this meeting , I have a strong preference for alternative D , like President Hoenig . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080430meeting--87.txt MR. EVANS Accordingly , I think that current real interest rates are appropriately accommodative relative to the baseline forecast for economic growth and the risk to that outlook . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080916meeting--130.txt MS. PIANALTO Today my forecasts for output and prices are broadly similar to the Greenbook 's for 2009 and 2010 , although I am expecting more weakness in economic activity in the second half of this year than the Greenbook is forecasting . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080916meeting--114.txt MR. LOCKHART -LSB- Laughter -RSB- Obviously , we ca n't ignore the events of the weekend and yesterday 's financial markets . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20081216meeting--88.txt MS. PIANALTO I support your view , Mr. Chairman , that we should keep our focus on expanding the asset side of our balance sheet . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080130meeting--176.txt MR. PLOSSER But the policy assumptions that I make to achieve the forecasted outcomes for the intermediate term are different from the Greenbook 's . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080130meeting--74.txt MS. LIANG We also present projections based on the Greenbook recession alternative with the additional assumption that national house prices fall 20 percent . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080430meeting--95.txt MR. ROSENGREN In a sense , the Greenbook represents another mode in the forecast distribution with probability roughly equal to our forecast . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080430meeting--3.txt MR. DUDLEY I also want to inform the Committee of a small technical change that the staff plans to make in the TSLF program . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080805meeting--124.txt MR. LACKER I hope , Mr. Chairman , that the group you 've commissioned to study the meaning of unusual and exigent circumstances can explore this terrain in a little more depth . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080430meeting--99.txt MR. BULLARD Monetary policy can mitigate the effects of a large shock but can not be expected to completely offset exceptional disturbances . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080430meeting--99.txt MR. BULLARD The exceptionally low rates of a few years ago are sometimes cited as providing fuel for today 's problems . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080805meeting--117.txt MS. PIANALTO The Greenbook baseline scenario expects the near-term inflation picture to worsen in the second half of this year before improving gradually over the entire forecast period . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080916meeting--149.txt MS. CUMMING But the recent developments -- as we 've seen in inflation expectations discussed earlier , in energy and other commodity prices , the unit labor cost developments that President Yellen discussed , and the year-over-year changes in import prices -- are all pointing in the direction of some moderation of inflation and moderation of inflation expectations . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080916meeting--149.txt MS. CUMMING On the weaker economic outlook , we see the intensification of adverse growth coming from many things mentioned already : the unemployment rate increase and the likelihood that consumer spending is going to be negative . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080916meeting--149.txt MS. CUMMING As part of this -- particularly in the financial sector , I would say -- in our senior loan officer survey we 've seen indications that , even as rates in , say , the mortgage markets start to ease a bit , nonprice terms may still be tightening . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080430meeting--55.txt MR. STOCKTON Under these conditions , headline PCE price inflation posts another year north of 3 percent , and core inflation moves a bit higher to 2 percent this year and next . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20081216meeting--62.txt MR. LACKER The Committee 's management of the base or bank reserves is distinct , in my view -- as you noted , Mr. Chairman -- from the initiatives that use our balance sheet to target specific financial market spreads . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20081029meeting--163.txt MR. MORIN In addition , we cut back the size of the judgmental adjustments for financial turmoil to their September Greenbook levels . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080805meeting--149.txt MS. YELLEN Although core inflation exceeds the level I consider consistent with price stability , unemployment also exceeds the level consistent with full employment . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080625meeting--67.txt MR. HOENIG I continue to judge that the potential spillover effects from the financial distress have understandably been overestimated in this Committee 's recent decisions and in Greenbook forecasts in recent months . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080130meeting--161.txt MS. YELLEN I have assumed a 50 basis point cut at this meeting and an additional 25 basis point cut during the first half . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080318meeting--37.txt MR. STOCKTON This morning 's data on housing starts also suggest little end in sight to the ongoing recession in housing . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080318meeting--37.txt MR. STOCKTON If one grants that the economy , from time to time , exhibits nonlinear behavior , then our forecast will need nonlinear changes to avoid making outsized errors . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080109confcall--44.txt MR. KOHN I 'm not even sure we 're at neutral , and I see the downside risks that you , Mr. Chairman , Dave Stockton , and many others have talked about , particularly from the credit markets and credit conditions . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20081216meeting--470.txt MR. KOHN One comment , to follow up on your comment , Mr. Chairman , to President Lacker -- I think there 's pretty good evidence that there are liquidity strains in the market , beyond just credit strains , impinging on the price of these securities . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20081007confcall--28.txt MR. FISHER 26 , MR. FISHER. , '' Mr. Chairman , I just want to add to Nathan 's discussion but join it with the credit road . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080625meeting--86.txt MR. EVANS But my base case does not have inflation moving below 2 percent until after 2010 , and that is even with more aggressive policy tightening than the Greenbook path . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080430meeting--106.txt MR. LACKER Another fundamental factor is the demand for term funding by European banks about which uncertainty remains regarding mortgage-related losses that may be imminent . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20081216meeting--105.txt MS. AARONSON As shown in the bottom left panel , these new federal programs boost the impetus to GDP growth from fiscal policy considerably relative to our assumptions in the October Greenbook . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080916meeting--120.txt MS. YELLEN I agree with the Greenbook 's assessment that the strength we saw in the upwardly revised real GDP growth in the second quarter will not hold up .