FOMC/FOMC20071031meeting/FOMC20071031meeting--103.txt MR. MADIGAN As Dave Stockton discussed yesterday in response to a question from Vice Chairman Geithner , the Greenbook projection is a modal forecast . FOMC/FOMC20070628meeting/FOMC20070628meeting--109.txt MR. LACKER Housing , of course , continues to be the main drag on spending , and the most prominent source of uncertainty about the real outlook . FOMC/FOMC20070807meeting/FOMC20070807meeting--59.txt MR. FISHER 57 , MR. FISHER. , '' Mr. Chairman , at the past few meetings I have spoken about my District as having strong growth . FOMC/FOMC20070509meeting/FOMC20070509meeting--80.txt MR. KOHN Now , to offset the effects of weakness in wealth from these prices , I had a slight easing of monetary policy this year , next year , and the following year -- 1/4 percentage point each year -- to get that same output . FOMC/FOMC20070509meeting/FOMC20070509meeting--80.txt MR. KOHN I confess that for ’07 I committed the sin of thinking things were more uncertain than usual , Mr. Chairman . FOMC/FOMC20071211meeting/FOMC20071211meeting--111.txt MR. KOHN So the damping effect of lower Treasury rates on the cost of conforming housing credit will be held down . FOMC/FOMC20070321meeting/FOMC20070321meeting--113.txt MR. KOHN Good growth in labor demand could suggest a stronger path for demand and less slack than the staff is estimating . FOMC/FOMC20070628meeting/FOMC20070628meeting--134.txt MR. WARSH Let me build on a couple of remarks that Vice Chairman Geithner made about risks now in the financial markets . FOMC/FOMC20070509meeting/FOMC20070509meeting--15.txt MR. STOCKTON As expected , the decline in residential investment took a significant bite out of first-quarter growth , as did net exports and defense spending . FOMC/FOMC20070509meeting/FOMC20070509meeting--15.txt MR. STOCKTON Private payrolls increased 63,000 in April , and there was a downward revision of 24,000 in February -- leaving the level of employment below that incorporated in the May Greenbook . FOMC/FOMC20071031meeting/FOMC20071031meeting--52.txt MS. YELLEN Underlying our forecast is the policy assumption that the Committee will cut the funds rate another 25 basis points at this meeting . FOMC/FOMC20070131meeting/FOMC20070131meeting--154.txt MR. HOENIG I 've been encouraged by the recent inflation data , and I continue to expect inflation to decline over the forecast period . FOMC/FOMC20070807meeting/FOMC20070807meeting--57.txt MS. YELLEN This adjustment reinforces the work of productivity experts at the Board and elsewhere who had previously found evidence of a slowdown in underlying productivity growth . FOMC/FOMC20070807meeting/FOMC20070807meeting--57.txt MS. YELLEN The Greenbook has long highlighted , and we have long worried about , the possibility and potential consequences of a broader shift in risk perceptions . FOMC/FOMC20071211meeting/FOMC20071211meeting--104.txt MR. HOENIG Comparing my views with those in Greenbook , the basic difference appears to be largely in some of the judgmental adjustments in the Greenbook concerning spillovers from the housing and financial stress to consumer spending . FOMC/FOMC20070807meeting/FOMC20070807meeting--42.txt MR. WILCOX In the `` Alternative Scenarios '' section of the Greenbook , we sketched three situations in which economic activity would be markedly weaker than in the baseline . FOMC/FOMC20071211meeting/FOMC20071211meeting--39.txt MR. STOCKTON Indeed , I still see the generally firm conditions in labor markets as suggesting some upside risk to our view that the economy is in the process of slowing sharply . FOMC/FOMC20070321meeting/FOMC20070321meeting--56.txt MS. JOHNSON Our projection for foreign inflation has been revised up just a little in response to the higher level of our path for oil prices . FOMC/FOMC20070131meeting/FOMC20070131meeting--32.txt MR. DUDLEY Although U.S. inventories remain high relative to the five-year historical average -LRB- as shown in chart 14 -RRB- , this situation has persisted for some time without having a big effect on prices . FOMC/FOMC20070321meeting/FOMC20070321meeting--59.txt MR. STOCKTON So I do n't think we 're seeing an excess supply of homes that people just wo n't want at current prices , or roughly current prices , but that is a considerable risk . FOMC/FOMC20070628meeting/FOMC20070628meeting--35.txt MR. WILCOX The data on both new and existing home sales that were released earlier this week were consistent with our Greenbook forecast . FOMC/FOMC20070628meeting/FOMC20070628meeting--35.txt MR. WILCOX However , the orders and shipments data for March and April -- the latest that were available to us when we were putting together the Greenbook , encouraged us to think that a rebound of at least modest proportions is in train , and this morning 's release came in close to our Greenbook expectations . FOMC/FOMC20070628meeting/FOMC20070628meeting--115.txt MS. MINEHAN Turning to the nation , I was pleased to see that incoming data validated the substantial pickup in second-quarter growth that we , along with the Greenbook , had forecasted . FOMC/FOMC20071031meeting/FOMC20071031meeting--86.txt MR. STOCKTON 84 , MR. STOCKTON. , `` 3 We left at your place -- and I hope you will find -- a table showing the GDP release numbers relative to the Greenbook forecast that we had . FOMC/FOMC20070321meeting/FOMC20070321meeting--73.txt MS. YELLEN However , as noted in one of the Greenbook alternative simulations , greater business pessimism about future returns to new capital is also a significant risk . FOMC/FOMC20070509meeting/FOMC20070509meeting--49.txt MS. YELLEN Overall , I 'm more optimistic regarding inflation than the Greenbook and anticipate that core PCE price inflation will edge down below 2 percent after next year . FOMC/FOMC20070509meeting/FOMC20070509meeting--49.txt MS. YELLEN On the one hand , the very sluggish real GDP growth in the first quarter gives me pause concerning potential downside risks . FOMC/FOMC20070321meeting/FOMC20070321meeting--3.txt MR. DUDLEY Nevertheless , the potential gap between market expectations and the Committee 's interest rate expectations may pose a bit of a conundrum for the Committee . FOMC/FOMC20070628meeting/FOMC20070628meeting--113.txt MR. STERN I thought it was particularly heartening , as noted in Part 2 of the Greenbook , that apparently the inventory overhang in construction supplies and in autos has been worked off , which suggests that we should see improvement in those sectors going forward . FOMC/FOMC20070628meeting/FOMC20070628meeting--132.txt MR. KOHN I projected output growth at 2 1/2 percent , the unemployment rate at 4 3/4 percent , and core PCE inflation at 1.9 percent . FOMC/FOMC20070131meeting/FOMC20070131meeting--94.txt MS. MINEHAN Second , I notice that , if you compare the Greenbook GDP forecast with the central tendency of the members of the Committee , growth is a good deal slower -- 0.3 or 0.4 slower , which in this realm is a lot . FOMC/FOMC20070131meeting/FOMC20070131meeting--118.txt MS. YELLEN Even so , the Greenbook forecasts , and we agree , that other factors will likely offset this acceleration so that GDP will grow slightly below trend in 2007 . FOMC/FOMC20070131meeting/FOMC20070131meeting--118.txt MS. YELLEN An alternative simulation in the Greenbook illustrates that if spending instead advances in line with income , the unemployment rate would decline noticeably further from a level that is already low . FOMC/FOMC20070628meeting/FOMC20070628meeting--124.txt MR. POOLE Perhaps what is going on here is simply what is also in the Greenbook 's second-quarter numbers , because the goods part of the economy -- consumption -- is pretty flat . FOMC/FOMC20070628meeting/FOMC20070628meeting--128.txt MR. PLOSSER The rise in long-term interest rates reflects the market 's upgrading of its assessment of the economy 's strength going forward .