MR. SLIFMAN
As shown in the middle right panel , the Wilshire 5000 stock market index is about 7 percent below the level we had assumed in the May Greenbook .
MR. SLIFMAN
When we prepared the Greenbook , the spot price of WTI was just under $ 70 per barrel , about $ 5 less than at the time of the May Greenbook .
MR. KOHN
If our loss function is asymmetrical relative to that , it 's more likely that interest rates would have to rise than to fall relative to the Greenbook path .
MR. KROSZNER
The specifics that I have heard from each of the Districts confirm the broad Greenbook view that this is going to be a pretty strong quarter .
MR. STOCKTON
I 'll conclude my remarks this afternoon by pointing out some changes that we made in the Greenbook this round , starting with our presentation of the financial assumptions .
MR. LACKER
For overall activity , I expect real GDP growth to be somewhat below trend , especially this quarter , but above the Greenbook through the end of next year .
MR. STOCKTON
But both June and July were revised down , and on net these data were a touch weaker than those incorporated in the September Greenbook .
MR. HOENIG
If the decline reverses faster than expected , both would be significantly weaker as shown by the Greenbook alternative scenario .
MS. YELLEN
Going forward , more-rapid output growth would imply a lower path for unemployment , potentially adding to inflation pressures .
MR. KOHN
The consumption and investment data for late months in the quarter do n't suggest an acceleration going into the third quarter .
MR. HOENIG
127 , MR. HOENIG. , '' Mr. Chairman , I 'd characterize the Tenth District 's economy as quite healthy right now .
MR. HOENIG
Generally speaking , I am more optimistic than the Greenbook , especially with regard to housing and consumer spending , and I 'm not nearly as pessimistic as the Greenbook on potential output .
MS. YELLEN
I support alternative B. I favor raising the funds rate 25 basis points , not 50 basis points , today .
MR. PLOSSER
The Greenbook forecast appears to me to incorporate an assumption of relative price stickiness that is inconsistent with some recent studies on microdata .
MS. YELLEN
Now , as David noted , the Greenbook has completely offset the favorable effects on core inflation from lower energy prices by boosting the growth rate of labor costs .
MS. YELLEN
In terms of economic activity , the recent news has been uniformly negative , resulting in a significant downward revision to growth in the Greenbook .
MS. YELLEN
For example , higher long-term rates could reflect rational market expectations of a significantly stronger domestic economy over the next few years .
MR. KAMIN
Such an event likely would lead to more U.S. growth but also more inflation and a need for tighter monetary policy than currently incorporated into the Greenbook forecast . ''
MR. LACKER
Fortunately , the combination of communication by FOMC participants and the Committee 's steady actions appears to have brought these expectations back in line .
MR. STONE
Employment , business spending , and manufacturing remain strong , and consumer spending continues to increase at a solid pace .
MS. PIANALTO
The current Greenbook baseline projection for GDP is even lower than it was at the time of our last meeting because of revisions , as Dave mentioned , to both supply and demand factors .
MS. JOHNSON
So our outlook is for oil prices to rise rather sharply over the forecast period , although from a lower starting point than in the September Greenbook .
MR. KOHN
A persistence of elevated rent increases will put a premium on viewing their implications for future inflation rather than on simply reacting to the incoming data .
MR. KOHN
In the staff forecast , residential construction flattens out this year and next , after contributing nearly half a point to GDP growth last year .
MS. PIANALTO
In fact , the Greenbook projections for real GDP now reflect something close to the pessimistic end of where I thought things could be heading .
MS. PIANALTO
That is , I am expecting the Greenbook 's call for moderation in economic growth to result in a little more slack than appears in the Greenbook 's baseline .
MS. YELLEN
These risks are highlighted by the alternative simulations in the Greenbook concerning a rise in the saving rate and a higher term premium .
MR. KOHN
In sum , Mr. Chairman , I 'm a bit more comfortable with something like the path for the economy and inflation in the Greenbook forecast , but uncertainties are quite high .
MS. MINEHAN
I do n't know what the possibility is of some surprise on the upside to the Greenbook 's current ’06 and , particularly , ’07 projections , but I think there may well be some .
MR. HOENIG
Housing markets in the District are cooling , as you 've heard described elsewhere , and illustrate I think a potential downside risk overall .
MR. LACKER
So it 's not clear that inflation compensation and inflation expectation measures are contained in a way that 's consistent with a long-run inflation objective around 1.5 percent .
MR. KOHN
That support flows from the results of the past twenty-five years and from confidence that we know what we 're doing and will behave sensibly .
MS. YELLEN
In the case of housing , we agree with the Greenbook assessment of housing activity and find it quite consistent with the reports of our contacts in this sector .
MR. STOCKTON
The bottom line is that our outlook for economic activity has not really changed much from the one presented in the October Greenbook -- or for that matter , the September Greenbook .
MR. MOSKOW
81 , MR. MOSKOW. , '' With restraint , Mr. Chairman , most of our contacts this round were positive about current business conditions .
MS. YELLEN
These surprises intensify the risk of a sharper slowdown as the lagged effects of our past policy actions come fully into effect .
MS. YELLEN
Core inflation , although uncomfortably high , came in 0.2 percentage point below the June Greenbook 's forecast in the second quarter .