MR. HOENIG
Comparing my views with those in Greenbook , the basic difference appears to be largely in some of the judgmental adjustments in the Greenbook concerning spillovers from the housing and financial stress to consumer spending .
MR. KOHN
I 'm encouraged that the most recent data on prices have tended to confirm that core inflation remains fairly low .
MR. KOHN
I confess that for ’07 I committed the sin of thinking things were more uncertain than usual , Mr. Chairman .
MS. PIANALTO
Like the Greenbook , I have scaled back my growth outlook to reflect a considerably softer trajectory for business fixed investment .
MR. PLOSSER
Business contacts as well as the Philadelphia staff expect this moderate pace of expansion to be continued in the coming months .
MR. PLOSSER
June employment growth in the region was below trend , but the region 's unemployment rate remains relatively low .
MR. KOHN
I was struck by the upward revision in rest-of-world growth in the Greenbook despite weakness in the United States , the rise in oil prices , and the decline in equity values .
MR. MISHKIN
We still have a big inventory overhang , and there is a question about whether that large inventory overhang is going to lead to even fewer housing starts than the Greenbook has forecasted .
MR. STOCKTON
Moreover , factory output increased sharply in March , and the available physical product data and the readings from the labor market report point to another sizable increase in April .
MR. KOHN
I do continue to believe that growth close to the growth rate of potential will be consistent with gradually ebbing inflation .
MR. LACKER
So the projection I submitted has core PCE inflation at 1.8 percent next year and 1.6 percent in 2009 .
MR. LACKER
So I 'm less sanguine overall about the near-term outlook for growth at this meeting , although that may just represent catching up on my part to the Greenbook 's past level of gloominess .
MR. LACKER
Reports on retail sales in the District remain soft , with sales of automobiles and building materials notably weak .
MS. YELLEN
Banks are showing increasing concern that their capital ratios will become binding and are tightening credit terms and conditions .
MR. LOCKHART
Our average forecast for real GDP growth is generally in line with the Greenbook forecast , and neither suggests that a recession is a risk .
MR. KROSZNER
When we get the revised numbers on July 27 and we also get advance GDP , we 're going to get a lot of information about that , and I think there is still a lot of uncertainty as to exactly where productivity is going .
MR. STERN
As far as the national economy is concerned , I agree with the Greenbook 's assessment of the incoming information that we received since the last Committee meeting .
MR. FISHER
We differ significantly , Mr. Chairman , from the central assumption of the Greenbook in our views on headline inflation looking forward .
MS. YELLEN
The latest data do n't point to an imminent recovery in this sector , and I fear that the recent run-up in mortgage rates will only make matters worse .
MR. LACKER
So while the increase in the saving rate projected by the Greenbook for next year is plausible , I think consumer spending could come out on the high side of that forecast .
MR. LACKER
Moreover , the Greenbook points to a number of special factors suggesting that the second quarter 's better inflation performance is likely to be transitory .
MR. LACKER
It 's tempting to extrapolate this favorable news forward as the Greenbook does and forecast a gradual downward drift without further overt action by the Committee .
MR. WILCOX
Nonetheless , our projection for core inflation next year is unrevised , on net , relative to the January Greenbook .
MR. MADIGAN
As Bill Dudley noted , market expectations for the path of monetary policy have fallen sharply over the intermeeting period .
MR. LACKER
I think the key question is the effect on the housing market and broader economic activity of the recent financial market turmoil .
MR. LACKER
Slower growth in the months ahead would weigh on income growth and consumption , although the Greenbook 's outlook for income remains pretty healthy .
MS. YELLEN
Similar to the Greenbook , we 've incorporated these financial developments into our projection by revising down our forecast for residential construction and home prices .
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE
I should be clear -- the Greenbook already incorporates a considerable slowdown in commercial real estate , but that means it will no longer offset the residential slowdown .
MS. YELLEN
Overall , I 'm more optimistic regarding inflation than the Greenbook and anticipate that core PCE price inflation will edge down below 2 percent after next year .
MS. PIANALTO
My projection for inflation in the outyears of the forecast are actually a little more favorable than what is in the Greenbook baseline , primarily because I still expect a bit more potential GDP growth than the Greenbook envisions .
MR. LOCKHART
Regarding the balance of risks , it is early to materially adjust the weighting of GDP downside versus inflation upside risks .
MR. LOCKHART
There 's a widespread view that persistent volatility in credit markets is bound to negatively affect the general economy .
MR. WARSH
In summary , I would say there are significant tails on both sides of this rather strong base case for the economy , but the economy is more likely to track above the expectations of the Greenbook .
MR. KOHN
Core CPI inflation on three-month and six-month bases has accelerated even if the acceleration has n't shown through to the PCE measures .
VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER
The strength of demand growth outside the United States has been helpful , and we agree with the Greenbook that it looks likely to continue for some time .
MR. HOENIG
I believe that construction , both residential and nonresidential , and slower consumer spending from higher energy prices constitute the main risks to the outlook .
MS. PIANALTO
In the end , I have only minor differences with the Greenbook projection in the near term and , like the Greenbook , made only minor revisions to my forecast .
MR. EVANS
Residential investment does look a bit worse than we thought , but consumption came in a good deal stronger than we had expected .