FOMC/FOMC20050630meeting/FOMC20050630meeting--370.txt MR. POOLE Fourth , I do n't think there 's any doubt that energy prices are having a significant effect on the purchasing power of , let 's say , the lower half of the income distribution . FOMC/FOMC20051213meeting/FOMC20051213meeting--27.txt MR. STOCKTON -LSB- Laughter -RSB- Only time will tell if these indicators are giving us a head fake or are the start of our long-awaited slowdown in this sector . FOMC/FOMC20050809meeting/FOMC20050809meeting--163.txt MR. KOHN In that regard , at some point rising short-term rates -- and recently long-term rates -- should take their toll on housing price appreciation . FOMC/FOMC20050809meeting/FOMC20050809meeting--163.txt MR. KOHN And the positive contribution to final sales from net exports in the second quarter appears to be a short - term quirk in either data or behavior . FOMC/FOMC20050809meeting/FOMC20050809meeting--163.txt MR. KOHN In my view , although the risks have shifted a little , they have not shifted enough to throw us off our presumed policy path of measured increases in interest rates , and I would continue to indicate that in our statement . FOMC/FOMC20050630meeting/FOMC20050630meeting--9.txt MR. LEHNERT As I noted earlier , recent anecdotal reports have highlighted a second potential risk lurking within mortgage markets -- the sudden popularity of interest-only mortgages . FOMC/FOMC20050920meeting/FOMC20050920meeting--98.txt VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER Will this dramatic rise in energy prices over the past two years cause more substantial damage to business and consumer confidence ? FOMC/FOMC20051101meeting/FOMC20051101meeting--135.txt MR. POOLE It 's much easier for me to imagine a 1/2 point forecast error with inflation coming in on the high side , rather than the low side , of the point forecast . FOMC/FOMC20050322meeting/FOMC20050322meeting--99.txt MR. GUYNN Like others , I 've been both somewhat surprised but certainly pleased at the steady and strong pace of real GDP and job growth we 've been experiencing . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--92.txt MR. SLIFMAN In addition , the Board 's index of industrial production continued to show above-trend gains in manufacturing sector activity . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--92.txt MR. SLIFMAN In any event , we see no reason to alter our first-quarter forecast as a result of the BEA 's fourth-quarter GDP estimate . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--92.txt MR. SLIFMAN Such an outcome , especially if accompanied by a drop in consumer confidence , would restrain PCE and GDP growth appreciably over the next two years . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--92.txt MR. SLIFMAN In implementing this simulation , we have assumed that financial markets have already incorporated this expectation , and thus there is no additional effect on asset prices . FOMC/FOMC20050630meeting/FOMC20050630meeting--366.txt MR. STERN I 've had a lot of experience doing those kinds of June 29-30 , 2005 131 of 234 the underlying dynamics or interactions of the price performance . FOMC/FOMC20050322meeting/FOMC20050322meeting--128.txt MR. KOHN Still , a number of factors seem to be working to restrain tendencies for inflation to move higher , and we ca n't ignore those . FOMC/FOMC20050322meeting/FOMC20050322meeting--128.txt MR. KOHN It will give us more opportunities to assess the effects of past tightening moves when we know that those effects can vary and will occur with a lag . FOMC/FOMC20050322meeting/FOMC20050322meeting--37.txt MR. STOCKTON Our projection incorporates some acceleration in wage inflation in response to higher price inflation this year and a gradual tightening of the labor market . FOMC/FOMC20050322meeting/FOMC20050322meeting--37.txt MR. STOCKTON The increase in core finished goods -- at 0.1 percent -- and the increase in core intermediate materials -- at 0.5 percent -- were right in line with the Greenbook projection . FOMC/FOMC20050322meeting/FOMC20050322meeting--37.txt MR. STOCKTON We do not yet have sufficient evidence to conclude that the decline observed in past exchange rate pass-through is being reversed . FOMC/FOMC20050920meeting/FOMC20050920meeting--21.txt MS. JOHNSON -LSB- Laughter -RSB- I 'll have to admit that we face more than the usual challenges in the period ahead . FOMC/FOMC20051101meeting/FOMC20051101meeting--121.txt MS. MINEHAN Employment growth should return to its pre-Katrina monthly pace , and the remaining slack in the U.S. economy should wane . FOMC/FOMC20051213meeting/FOMC20051213meeting--67.txt MR. GUYNN The latest numbers on third-quarter GDP were a bit better than I expected and describe what I , too , would characterize as a solid expansion . FOMC/FOMC20050630meeting/FOMC20050630meeting--166.txt MR. KOHN So if we see inflation moving , we 've got to do something about that , whereas we 're not responsible for the relative prices of houses or equity and other things . FOMC/FOMC20050920meeting/FOMC20050920meeting--100.txt MR. KOHN The pre-Katrina data themselves suggested some potentially interesting questions about the outlook , which could have implications for policy going forward . FOMC/FOMC20051101meeting/FOMC20051101meeting--119.txt MR. LACKER Nor do I think we could count on inflation expectations to gently drift back down after surging as the Greenbook expects -- at least not without forceful action on our part . FOMC/FOMC20051101meeting/FOMC20051101meeting--119.txt MR. LACKER One would expect most of the pass - through to take a couple of months to materialize , however , and in that regard there are several unsettling signs worth noting . FOMC/FOMC20050630meeting/FOMC20050630meeting--372.txt MR. LACKER And the Greenbook expects real GDP to average above 3 1/2 percent through the end of 2006 , slightly faster than potential . FOMC/FOMC20050630meeting/FOMC20050630meeting--372.txt MR. LACKER To me , the most striking revision in the June Greenbook was the 0.2 increase in the projected path for core PCE inflation through 2006 . FOMC/FOMC20050202meeting/FOMC20050202meeting--168.txt MR. REINHART Current futures rates are consistent with a median probability that you will have halted policy firming by the September meeting . FOMC/FOMC20051213meeting/FOMC20051213meeting--76.txt MR. SANTOMERO The third-quarter preliminary GDP figures showed broad-based strength in consumption and fixed investment growth , with strong productivity gains . FOMC/FOMC20050630meeting/FOMC20050630meeting--368.txt MS. YELLEN That is equivalent to saying that the equilibrium real fed funds rate is unusually low -- 1.4 percent in the Greenbook path . FOMC/FOMC20050630meeting/FOMC20050630meeting--368.txt MS. YELLEN These include the oil shock , the deterioration in the trade balance , and the still low level of investment spending relative to GDP . FOMC/FOMC20050630meeting/FOMC20050630meeting--368.txt MS. YELLEN On this score , things look fairly good , with core PCE price inflation at 1.7 percent over the past 12 months . FOMC/FOMC20050630meeting/FOMC20050630meeting--368.txt MS. YELLEN The Greenbook forecast depicts an almost textbook scenario of an economy continuing along the path toward a rather attractive steady state . FOMC/FOMC20051101meeting/FOMC20051101meeting--140.txt MR. KOHN That would , if it 's true , support the staff forecast ; but it has n't shown through in actual prices paid by consumers as of yet . FOMC/FOMC20051101meeting/FOMC20051101meeting--140.txt MR. KOHN And house price increases , working through the wealth channel and as an inducement to construction , should be less of a stimulus to demand in the future , though how much and how fast is a very open question . FOMC/FOMC20051101meeting/FOMC20051101meeting--140.txt MR. KOHN Interest rates have moved higher ; in response the exchange rate has firmed and stock prices have dropped a little . FOMC/FOMC20051101meeting/FOMC20051101meeting--140.txt MR. KOHN I 've defined accommodative for my own purposes as too low -LSB- laughter -RSB- -- too low to accomplish my objectives .