FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080916meeting--146.txt MR. FISHER 144 , MR. FISHER. , '' Mr. Chairman , it may surprise you that President Yellen and I agree , -LSB- laughter -RSB- at least with the recommendation , as I do with the majority . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080805meeting--122.txt MR. ROSENGREN As we get a more traditional credit crunch compounding the liquidity problems , I am concerned that credit will be less available to consumers and businesses and further slow consumption and business investment . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080805meeting--104.txt MR. EVANS Manufacturers have long lists of materials cost increases , while retailers note large increases in wholesale prices of imported consumer goods . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080430meeting--87.txt MR. EVANS Another challenge for inflationary expectations comes from our policy focus on the downside risks to growth during a time of rising headline inflation . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080130meeting--75.txt MR. SHEETS The individual contributions of exports and imports to U.S. GDP growth have both risen about percentage point in recent years . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080130meeting--75.txt MR. SHEETS We estimate that growth in Mexico -LRB- line 8 -RRB- declined sharply , in line with a contraction in U.S. manufacturing output . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080318meeting--41.txt MR. SHEETS Just a broader comment on the linkages between the U.S. and the foreign economies -- again , I was surprised at the strength of demand in these commodity markets . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080318meeting--90.txt MR. KROSZNER The PPI numbers that came out today raised some concerns that some of the good parts of the CPI will not be flowing through to PCE . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080430meeting--91.txt MS. YELLEN We have been reexamining the data on this issue and find the evidence quite convincing that pass-through has been quite low recently -- lower , for example , than embodied in the FRB/US model . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080430meeting--99.txt MR. BULLARD Monetary policy can mitigate the effects of a large shock but can not be expected to completely offset exceptional disturbances . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080805meeting--117.txt MS. PIANALTO The Greenbook baseline scenario expects the near-term inflation picture to worsen in the second half of this year before improving gradually over the entire forecast period . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080625meeting--82.txt MR. BULLARD Many business contacts in the District emphasize energy costs along with some other high commodity prices as an overriding concern . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080625meeting--73.txt MR. LOCKHART Credit conditions in the District continue to tighten because of perceived risk and also liquidity pressure on our banks . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080625meeting--73.txt MR. LOCKHART On the subject of the long-term projections , I favor the third approach , which is three years plus long-term averages , and certainly would be comfortable with approach number 2 . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080916meeting--149.txt MS. CUMMING On the weaker economic outlook , we see the intensification of adverse growth coming from many things mentioned already : the unemployment rate increase and the likelihood that consumer spending is going to be negative . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080916meeting--149.txt MS. CUMMING As part of this -- particularly in the financial sector , I would say -- in our senior loan officer survey we 've seen indications that , even as rates in , say , the mortgage markets start to ease a bit , nonprice terms may still be tightening . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080916meeting--149.txt MS. CUMMING In particular , as you know , several G-10 countries are facing very difficult situations in their housing markets , not much different from us ; and the financial intermediation adjustment is truly a global correction . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080916meeting--149.txt MS. CUMMING But the recent developments -- as we 've seen in inflation expectations discussed earlier , in energy and other commodity prices , the unit labor cost developments that President Yellen discussed , and the year-over-year changes in import prices -- are all pointing in the direction of some moderation of inflation and moderation of inflation expectations . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080916meeting--149.txt MS. CUMMING As financial institutions feel their capital is constrained -- and there 's plenty of evidence that balance sheets are constrained across much of the financial sector -- those kinds of nonprice rationing measures probably will become more evident . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080916meeting--149.txt MS. CUMMING In particular , we have looked at inflation expectations as measured by financial markets and feel that the decline that we see in those expectations can not be explained simply by the drop in energy prices and technical factors but look larger than that . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080430meeting--55.txt MR. STOCKTON Moreover , our forecast for 2009 bears a striking resemblance to the out-year forecasts that we have continued to make over the past four years . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080430meeting--54.txt MR. SHEETS 52 , MR. SHEETS. , '' Much as Dave just described for the domestic economy , our forecast for economic activity abroad also is little changed from the last Greenbook . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080805meeting--115.txt MS. YELLEN Indeed , the decline in broad stock market indexes is partly a reflection of the market 's concerns about the health of the financial sector . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080805meeting--115.txt MS. YELLEN One partially mitigating factor that should help to support consumer spending is the drop in the price of oil since our last meeting . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20081029meeting--163.txt MR. MORIN In addition , we cut back the size of the judgmental adjustments for financial turmoil to their September Greenbook levels . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20081029meeting--163.txt MR. MORIN The shaded area shows the range of results from the model-based estimates detailed in Part 1 of the October Greenbook . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080430meeting--93.txt MR. FISHER You have that list , Mr. Chairman , and I would like to speak to what I deduced from triangulating those conversations with what I read in the Bluebook and the Greenbook . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080318meeting--67.txt MR. PLOSSER Although our firms are expecting continued weak real activity , they expect prices to rise over the next six months . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080318meeting--37.txt MR. STOCKTON Obviously , in our current forecast , the economy experiences recession this year , and housing does n't show much sign of stabilizing until next year . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080318meeting--51.txt MR. ROSENGREN Some indicators of inflation are higher than we want , but during previous recessions , commodity prices and inflation rates fell . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080130meeting--294.txt MR. FISHER Mr. Chairman , I think we 've gone as far as is prudent for now , and that 3 percent , together with the other initiatives we 've taken to restore liquidity , is sufficient . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080625meeting--133.txt MR. KOHN I think all of ours were a little stronger than the Greenbook 's , but even if I marked up r * by point or 1 point , that 's not a huge amount of insurance in the circumstances that we 're facing . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080625meeting--92.txt MR. KOHN I continue to believe that the 2 percent nominal funds rate is not indicative of a highly accommodative financial condition , given the current state of financial markets . FOMC2008_csv/FOMC20080625meeting--92.txt MR. KOHN In fact , I saw the risks on headline inflation as tilted to the upside , though roughly balanced around the gradual decrease in core .