FOMC/FOMC20070628meeting/FOMC20070628meeting--122.txt MS. PIANALTO -LSB- Laughter -RSB- Now , turning to inflation , I am hearing reports of upward price pressures across a handful of industrial commodities , and notably for metals . FOMC/FOMC20070131meeting/FOMC20070131meeting--55.txt MR. GAGNON Readings from futures markets imply a flattening out of nonfuel commodity prices and only a moderate increase in oil prices going forward . FOMC/FOMC20070131meeting/FOMC20070131meeting--55.txt MR. GAGNON This projection is driven by the historical tendency of U.S. imports to grow at a much faster rate than U.S. GDP . FOMC/FOMC20070628meeting/FOMC20070628meeting--139.txt CHAIRMAN BERNANKE A number of participants referred to the strength of the global economy , which is stimulating U.S. exports but also leading to increases in costs of energy and metals . FOMC/FOMC20070509meeting/FOMC20070509meeting--63.txt MS. PIANALTO My business contacts are telling me that capital investment is a bit soft , but it should not at this point pose a serious problem for the overall economy . FOMC/FOMC20070509meeting/FOMC20070509meeting--15.txt MR. STOCKTON But that reacceleration of activity is limited by a diminishing impetus to consumer spending from housing wealth and a reasonably restrictive monetary policy . FOMC/FOMC20071031meeting/FOMC20071031meeting--52.txt MS. YELLEN With regard to inflation , I expect core PCE inflation to remain around 1 3/4 percent over the next several years . FOMC/FOMC20070131meeting/FOMC20070131meeting--154.txt MR. HOENIG 152 , MR. HOENIG. , '' Thank you , Mr. Chairman , now that I have everyone 's attention , -LSB- laughter -RSB- I 'm going to start with some information on the District and then talk briefly about the national economy from my perspective . FOMC/FOMC20070807meeting/FOMC20070807meeting--57.txt MS. YELLEN In addition to tighter financial conditions , lower structural productivity growth was the reason that we lowered our forecast for real GDP growth to 2 1/4 percent in 2008 . FOMC/FOMC20070807meeting/FOMC20070807meeting--57.txt MS. YELLEN A key development during the intermeeting period was the downward revision of real GDP growth over the 2004-06 period . FOMC/FOMC20070807meeting/FOMC20070807meeting--57.txt MS. YELLEN I thus think that a larger decline in the fed funds rate will be needed over time than in the Greenbook baseline to achieve a soft landing . FOMC/FOMC20071031meeting/FOMC20071031meeting--11.txt MR. SHEETS The spot price of WTI is trading today at nearly $ 92 a barrel , up $ 5 since the Greenbook went to bed . FOMC/FOMC20071031meeting/FOMC20071031meeting--45.txt MR. FISHER We differ significantly , Mr. Chairman , from the central assumption of the Greenbook in our views on headline inflation looking forward . FOMC/FOMC20071031meeting/FOMC20071031meeting--45.txt MR. FISHER The bottom line , Mr. Chairman , is that , there is clearly a fat left tail on growth -- the economy is growing slower . FOMC/FOMC20070628meeting/FOMC20070628meeting--105.txt MS. YELLEN This forecast is predicated on continued well-anchored inflation expectations and the eventual appearance of a small amount of labor market slack . FOMC/FOMC20071211meeting/FOMC20071211meeting--39.txt MR. STOCKTON In fact , the payroll employment figures are slightly stronger than we expected at the time of the October Greenbook . FOMC/FOMC20070628meeting/FOMC20070628meeting--37.txt MR. LEAHY As shown to the right , fixed investment spending as a share of GDP has moved up a couple of percentage points since 2003 . FOMC/FOMC20070131meeting/FOMC20070131meeting--142.txt MR. LACKER It 's tempting to extrapolate this favorable news forward as the Greenbook does and forecast a gradual downward drift without further overt action by the Committee . FOMC/FOMC20070131meeting/FOMC20070131meeting--32.txt MR. DUDLEY The strong demand for the credit derivatives obligations created from subprime mortgage products has restrained the rise in credit spreads . FOMC/FOMC20070321meeting/FOMC20070321meeting--105.txt MR. LOCKHART Reports from banking contacts suggest that delinquency rates on nonprime ARM loans in Florida will continue to trend higher this year . FOMC/FOMC20070509meeting/FOMC20070509meeting--16.txt MS. JOHNSON The effects of this more benign level for oil prices would be slightly positive for real GDP growth both in the United States and abroad . FOMC/FOMC20071211meeting/FOMC20071211meeting--102.txt MR. PLOSSER It 's important to note that , for a good part of the forecast for the fourth-quarter GDP , it 's payback for strong inventories and net export numbers in the third quarter . FOMC/FOMC20071211meeting/FOMC20071211meeting--102.txt MR. PLOSSER According to our Business Outlook Survey , manufacturing activity in the District has been increasing at a modest pace for the past few months . FOMC/FOMC20071211meeting/FOMC20071211meeting--102.txt MR. PLOSSER Credit constraints experienced by the large money center banks have not appreciably affected the banks in our District or their lending practices . FOMC/FOMC20070321meeting/FOMC20070321meeting--73.txt MS. YELLEN The extraordinary run-up in house prices in recent years led to construction and sales booms that could n't last . FOMC/FOMC20070321meeting/FOMC20070321meeting--73.txt MS. YELLEN However , as noted in one of the Greenbook alternative simulations , greater business pessimism about future returns to new capital is also a significant risk . FOMC/FOMC20070321meeting/FOMC20070321meeting--73.txt MS. YELLEN Recent data on economic activity have been downbeat in many sectors , and I agree with the general tenor of the Greenbook that the near-term outlook is weaker than before . FOMC/FOMC20071031meeting/FOMC20071031meeting--81.txt MR. KROSZNER The financial markets outside of housing have generally had fairly significant improvement , although a lot of brittleness remains . FOMC/FOMC20070628meeting/FOMC20070628meeting--138.txt MR. MISHKIN I was really pleased because the Greenbook has basically moved closer to the picture that I had all along ; so now I 'm very comfortable with the Greenbook forecast . FOMC/FOMC20071031meeting/FOMC20071031meeting--84.txt CHAIRMAN BERNANKE I should be clear -- the Greenbook already incorporates a considerable slowdown in commercial real estate , but that means it will no longer offset the residential slowdown . FOMC/FOMC20070807meeting/FOMC20070807meeting--43.txt MS. JOHNSON The lower path for U.S. GDP growth going forward is the primary explanation of our downward revision to projected import growth . FOMC/FOMC20070807meeting/FOMC20070807meeting--43.txt MS. JOHNSON Of course , the baseline path for U.S. real GDP takes into account the lower imports and the simultaneous nature of the determination of GDP and its components . FOMC/FOMC20070509meeting/FOMC20070509meeting--49.txt MS. YELLEN On the one hand , the very sluggish real GDP growth in the first quarter gives me pause concerning potential downside risks . FOMC/FOMC20070628meeting/FOMC20070628meeting--124.txt MR. POOLE Perhaps what is going on here is simply what is also in the Greenbook 's second-quarter numbers , because the goods part of the economy -- consumption -- is pretty flat . FOMC/FOMC20071031meeting/FOMC20071031meeting--62.txt MR. LACKER The main shift in my perspective since the last meeting is that I am now at least as pessimistic as the Greenbook about prospects for housing bottoming out anytime soon . FOMC/FOMC20070807meeting/FOMC20070807meeting--89.txt MR. ROSENGREN My own view is that residential investment is likely to be as weak as in the Greenbook forecast but that potential may be closer to Boston 's estimate . FOMC/FOMC20070807meeting/FOMC20070807meeting--89.txt MR. ROSENGREN The Boston staff forecast is somewhat more optimistic on residential investment but also has somewhat higher potential than the Greenbook forecast . FOMC/FOMC20070131meeting/FOMC20070131meeting--136.txt MR. FISHER At home , we 're seeing unacceptably high and sustained wage developments for certain critical components of labor , which I mentioned earlier . FOMC/FOMC20070321meeting/FOMC20070321meeting--55.txt MR. STOCKTON Karen will discuss the external sector , which is expected to be a smaller drag on output in this forecast compared with our previous one .