MR. SLIFMAN
When we prepared the Greenbook , the spot price of WTI was just under $ 70 per barrel , about $ 5 less than at the time of the May Greenbook .
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE
On the negative side , many people have pointed out the effect of rising interest rates and softening in housing prices .
MS. PIANALTO
In fact , the Greenbook projections for real GDP now reflect something close to the pessimistic end of where I thought things could be heading .
MS. PIANALTO
That is , I am expecting the Greenbook 's call for moderation in economic growth to result in a little more slack than appears in the Greenbook 's baseline .
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE
The Greenbook forecast is predicated on a constant federal funds rate from the current level ; actually the rate declines in 2008 .
MR. LACKER
This is consistent with the Greenbook 's estimate that residential investment will no longer subtract from real GDP growth after the first half of next year .
MR. LACKER
Third , as we 've discussed at previous meetings , the projected increase in unemployment is not likely to have much of an effect on inflation , over the forecast period at least .
MR. KOHN
In sum , Mr. Chairman , I 'm a bit more comfortable with something like the path for the economy and inflation in the Greenbook forecast , but uncertainties are quite high .
MR. STOCKTON
In fact , we revised down aggregate supply by virtually the same amount that we revised down aggregate demand , leaving the output gap nearly unchanged from the August Greenbook .
MR. KOHN
One is the performance of core consumer prices and price measures , which continue to suggest that the pass-through of higher energy prices will be limited .
MR. KOHN
The consumption and investment data for late months in the quarter do n't suggest an acceleration going into the third quarter .
MR. HOENIG
Generally speaking , I am more optimistic than the Greenbook , especially with regard to housing and consumer spending , and I 'm not nearly as pessimistic as the Greenbook on potential output .
MR. HOENIG
127 , MR. HOENIG. , '' Mr. Chairman , I 'd characterize the Tenth District 's economy as quite healthy right now .
MR. STERN
The housing situation notwithstanding , I remain somewhat more optimistic about our prospects for real growth both in ’07 and in ’08 than the Greenbook .
MR. PLOSSER
To me , 3 percent inflation and 1 1/2 percent real growth is not a comfortable place to be and would make restraining inflation in the future even harder for us .
MR. PLOSSER
A pickup in activity in nonresidential real estate markets has been helping to offset the decline in residential construction .
MR. PLOSSER
If scenario 1 comes to pass and inflation falls faster than suggested by the Greenbook baseline , then we would all breathe easier .
MR. STOCKTON
58 , MR. STOCKTON. , `` 2 As we see it , the recent configuration of data suggests that , to the extent that there was any noticeable weakness in the fourth quarter , it was short-lived , and we are Thank you , Mr. Chairman .
MR. STOCKTON
One of the reasons that we are reasonably optimistic about the investment outlook is that the total return to capital -- plotted in the middle left panel -- remains quite favorable .
MS. PIANALTO
The Greenbook baseline captures very well the pattern that I 've been describing in its projection for nonresidential investment over the next few years .
MS. PIANALTO
The current Greenbook baseline projection for GDP is even lower than it was at the time of our last meeting because of revisions , as Dave mentioned , to both supply and demand factors .
MR. SHEETS
Given these revisions , China 's GDP last year now appears to have exceeded that of France and the United Kingdom , making China the world 's fourth-largest economy .
MS. JOHNSON
So our outlook is for oil prices to rise rather sharply over the forecast period , although from a lower starting point than in the September Greenbook .
MS. JOHNSON
For the emerging-market economies , the most important news is Chinese third-quarter real GDP growth , announced just after the Greenbook was distributed .
MR. KROSZNER
The specifics that I have heard from each of the Districts confirm the broad Greenbook view that this is going to be a pretty strong quarter .
MR. LACKER
However , July 's lower numbers were not particularly broad based , and the August CPI report shows a significant rebound in core inflation , as President Fisher noted .
MR. LACKER
For overall activity , I expect real GDP growth to be somewhat below trend , especially this quarter , but above the Greenbook through the end of next year .
MR. KROSZNER
-LSB- Laughter -RSB- I hope this does not bode ill for the economy going forward , but I did want to note that one very important change , Mr. Chairman .
MS. YELLEN
Moreover , part of the recent uptick traces to large increases in housing costs that are finally showing up in the CPI just as the housing market is slowing .
MS. YELLEN
I would feel more concerned were it not for the largely reassuring data on productivity , labor compensation , and profit margins .
MS. PIANALTO
Much like the Greenbook , the reports that I hear from my directors and business contacts are consistent with an economy that is expanding , but at a slower pace than earlier this year .
MR. KAMIN
It is also about 0.1 percentage point smaller than in the October Greenbook , and we would attribute this principally to the weaker dollar .
MR. KOHN
Widespread policy tightening and greater uncertainty have led to increased caution on the part of investors and tighter global financial conditions .
MR. KOHN
Expected persistent increases in owners ' equivalent rent will boost expected CPI showing up in TIPS spreads but not necessarily affecting other pricing decisions .
MS. YELLEN
However , the employment cost index was in line with expectations in June and continues to show moderate growth .
MS. YELLEN
These surprises intensify the risk of a sharper slowdown as the lagged effects of our past policy actions come fully into effect .