FOMC/FOMC20060629meeting/FOMC20060629meeting--17.txt MR. SLIFMAN When we prepared the Greenbook , the spot price of WTI was just under $ 70 per barrel , about $ 5 less than at the time of the May Greenbook . FOMC/FOMC20060510meeting/FOMC20060510meeting--132.txt CHAIRMAN BERNANKE On the negative side , many people have pointed out the effect of rising interest rates and softening in housing prices . FOMC/FOMC20060808meeting/FOMC20060808meeting--58.txt MS. PIANALTO In fact , the Greenbook projections for real GDP now reflect something close to the pessimistic end of where I thought things could be heading . FOMC/FOMC20060808meeting/FOMC20060808meeting--58.txt MS. PIANALTO That is , I am expecting the Greenbook 's call for moderation in economic growth to result in a little more slack than appears in the Greenbook 's baseline . FOMC/FOMC20061025meeting/FOMC20061025meeting--98.txt CHAIRMAN BERNANKE The Greenbook forecast is predicated on a constant federal funds rate from the current level ; actually the rate declines in 2008 . FOMC/FOMC20061212meeting/FOMC20061212meeting--71.txt MR. LACKER This is consistent with the Greenbook 's estimate that residential investment will no longer subtract from real GDP growth after the first half of next year . FOMC/FOMC20061212meeting/FOMC20061212meeting--71.txt MR. LACKER Third , as we 've discussed at previous meetings , the projected increase in unemployment is not likely to have much of an effect on inflation , over the forecast period at least . FOMC/FOMC20060920meeting/FOMC20060920meeting--142.txt MR. KOHN In sum , Mr. Chairman , I 'm a bit more comfortable with something like the path for the economy and inflation in the Greenbook forecast , but uncertainties are quite high . FOMC/FOMC20060920meeting/FOMC20060920meeting--59.txt MR. STOCKTON In fact , we revised down aggregate supply by virtually the same amount that we revised down aggregate demand , leaving the output gap nearly unchanged from the August Greenbook . FOMC/FOMC20060131meeting/FOMC20060131meeting--116.txt MR. KOHN One is the performance of core consumer prices and price measures , which continue to suggest that the pass-through of higher energy prices will be limited . FOMC/FOMC20060808meeting/FOMC20060808meeting--72.txt MR. KOHN The consumption and investment data for late months in the quarter do n't suggest an acceleration going into the third quarter . FOMC/FOMC20060920meeting/FOMC20060920meeting--129.txt MR. HOENIG Generally speaking , I am more optimistic than the Greenbook , especially with regard to housing and consumer spending , and I 'm not nearly as pessimistic as the Greenbook on potential output . FOMC/FOMC20060920meeting/FOMC20060920meeting--129.txt MR. HOENIG 127 , MR. HOENIG. , '' Mr. Chairman , I 'd characterize the Tenth District 's economy as quite healthy right now . FOMC/FOMC20061025meeting/FOMC20061025meeting--72.txt MR. STERN The housing situation notwithstanding , I remain somewhat more optimistic about our prospects for real growth both in ’07 and in ’08 than the Greenbook . FOMC/FOMC20060920meeting/FOMC20060920meeting--127.txt MR. PLOSSER To me , 3 percent inflation and 1 1/2 percent real growth is not a comfortable place to be and would make restraining inflation in the future even harder for us . FOMC/FOMC20060920meeting/FOMC20060920meeting--127.txt MR. PLOSSER A pickup in activity in nonresidential real estate markets has been helping to offset the decline in residential construction . FOMC/FOMC20060920meeting/FOMC20060920meeting--127.txt MR. PLOSSER If scenario 1 comes to pass and inflation falls faster than suggested by the Greenbook baseline , then we would all breathe easier . FOMC/FOMC20060131meeting/FOMC20060131meeting--60.txt MR. STOCKTON 58 , MR. STOCKTON. , `` 2 As we see it , the recent configuration of data suggests that , to the extent that there was any noticeable weakness in the fourth quarter , it was short-lived , and we are Thank you , Mr. Chairman . FOMC/FOMC20060131meeting/FOMC20060131meeting--60.txt MR. STOCKTON One of the reasons that we are reasonably optimistic about the investment outlook is that the total return to capital -- plotted in the middle left panel -- remains quite favorable . FOMC/FOMC20060920meeting/FOMC20060920meeting--131.txt MS. PIANALTO The Greenbook baseline captures very well the pattern that I 've been describing in its projection for nonresidential investment over the next few years . FOMC/FOMC20060920meeting/FOMC20060920meeting--131.txt MS. PIANALTO The current Greenbook baseline projection for GDP is even lower than it was at the time of our last meeting because of revisions , as Dave mentioned , to both supply and demand factors . FOMC/FOMC20060131meeting/FOMC20060131meeting--62.txt MR. SHEETS Given these revisions , China 's GDP last year now appears to have exceeded that of France and the United Kingdom , making China the world 's fourth-largest economy . FOMC/FOMC20061025meeting/FOMC20061025meeting--13.txt MS. JOHNSON So our outlook is for oil prices to rise rather sharply over the forecast period , although from a lower starting point than in the September Greenbook . FOMC/FOMC20061025meeting/FOMC20061025meeting--13.txt MS. JOHNSON For the emerging-market economies , the most important news is Chinese third-quarter real GDP growth , announced just after the Greenbook was distributed . FOMC/FOMC20060328meeting/FOMC20060328meeting--163.txt MR. KROSZNER The specifics that I have heard from each of the Districts confirm the broad Greenbook view that this is going to be a pretty strong quarter . FOMC/FOMC20060920meeting/FOMC20060920meeting--125.txt MR. LACKER However , July 's lower numbers were not particularly broad based , and the August CPI report shows a significant rebound in core inflation , as President Fisher noted . FOMC/FOMC20060920meeting/FOMC20060920meeting--125.txt MR. LACKER For overall activity , I expect real GDP growth to be somewhat below trend , especially this quarter , but above the Greenbook through the end of next year . FOMC/FOMC20061212meeting/FOMC20061212meeting--103.txt MR. KROSZNER -LSB- Laughter -RSB- I hope this does not bode ill for the economy going forward , but I did want to note that one very important change , Mr. Chairman . FOMC/FOMC20060629meeting/FOMC20060629meeting--95.txt MS. YELLEN Moreover , part of the recent uptick traces to large increases in housing costs that are finally showing up in the CPI just as the housing market is slowing . FOMC/FOMC20060629meeting/FOMC20060629meeting--95.txt MS. YELLEN I would feel more concerned were it not for the largely reassuring data on productivity , labor compensation , and profit margins . FOMC/FOMC20060629meeting/FOMC20060629meeting--87.txt MS. PIANALTO Much like the Greenbook , the reports that I hear from my directors and business contacts are consistent with an economy that is expanding , but at a slower pace than earlier this year . FOMC/FOMC20061212meeting/FOMC20061212meeting--30.txt MR. KAMIN It is also about 0.1 percentage point smaller than in the October Greenbook , and we would attribute this principally to the weaker dollar . FOMC/FOMC20060629meeting/FOMC20060629meeting--109.txt MR. KOHN Widespread policy tightening and greater uncertainty have led to increased caution on the part of investors and tighter global financial conditions . FOMC/FOMC20060629meeting/FOMC20060629meeting--109.txt MR. KOHN Expected persistent increases in owners ' equivalent rent will boost expected CPI showing up in TIPS spreads but not necessarily affecting other pricing decisions . FOMC/FOMC20060808meeting/FOMC20060808meeting--50.txt MS. YELLEN However , the employment cost index was in line with expectations in June and continues to show moderate growth . FOMC/FOMC20060808meeting/FOMC20060808meeting--50.txt MS. YELLEN These surprises intensify the risk of a sharper slowdown as the lagged effects of our past policy actions come fully into effect .