MR. RUDEBUSCH
9 , MR. RUDEBUSCH. , '' I will review some general issues related to monetary policy and asset prices .
MR. KOHN
I can only explain the recent pace of compensation data if appreciable slack is persisting in labor markets to balance these other upside pressures .
MR. KOHN
Or if trend productivity slows more than projected , firms could be more insistent and more successful in passing through costs than is consistent with keeping inflation in check .
MS. JOHNSON
In addition , expiration of the multifiber agreement -LSB- World Trade Organization Agreement on Textiles and Clothing -RSB- should lower import prices .
MR. KOHN
In that regard , at some point rising short-term rates -- and recently long-term rates -- should take their toll on housing price appreciation .
MR. KOS
The spreads between the June ’06 and June ’05 contracts widened to reflect this more aggressive expected path of tightening .
MS. YELLEN
Turning to the national economy , I share the Greenbook 's assessment of the near-term impact of Hurricane Katrina on economic growth .
MR. LEAHY
248 , MR. LEAHY. , '' The top left panel of exhibit 11 presents our outlook for foreign real GDP growth .
MR. LEAHY
June 29-30 , 2005 91 of 234 $ 960 billion , or about 7 1/4 percent of U.S. GDP , by the fourth quarter of 2006 .
MR. WILCOX
As shown by the green line , we did not begin providing a forecast of inflation in 2006 until last September 's Greenbook , but since then , that forecast has followed a similar upward trajectory .
MR. WILCOX
We take some comfort from this result because we expect the upward impetus from the sources represented on lines 2 and 3 to prove transitory .
MR. GUYNN
At the same time , I do n't want us to appear to be overreacting to the short-term supply shock to prices ; that may make it seem that we think we 've gotten behind the curve .
MR. SLIFMAN
Such an outcome , especially if accompanied by a drop in consumer confidence , would restrain PCE and GDP growth appreciably over the next two years .
MR. SLIFMAN
In any event , we see no reason to alter our first-quarter forecast as a result of the BEA 's fourth-quarter GDP estimate .
MR. SLIFMAN
As you know from reading the Greenbook , the only material change in our forecast since the December FOMC meeting concerns prospects for the near term .
MS. MINEHAN
Obviously , higher interest rates would tend to level house prices off or take June 29-30 , 2005 51 of 234 house that they 're in .
MR. FISHER
In terms of current pricing , the discussion at the table focused on the fact that some percentage of that pricing is due to financial and speculative activity .
MR. STOCKTON
Futures markets have not proven to be terribly reliable guides to prices over the past year , but we simply aren = t confident that we can outguess the markets in these areas .
MR. STOCKTON
Relative to the figures we put in the Greenbook , net investment income surprised us in the positive direction .
MS. JOHNSON
57 , MS. JOHNSON. , '' The staff outlook for real GDP growth abroad is little changed this time from that in the June Greenbook .
MR. HOENIG
I would submit that the risk of higher inflation , therefore , is now large enough that we should at least be thinking about raising rates more aggressively toward neutral than we have in the past .
MR. FISHER
133 , MR. FISHER. , '' Mr. Chairman , as reported in the Beige Book , activity in our District has picked up substantially .
MR. POOLE
The revisions over the past 18 months or two years have really been extraordinary -- essentially a doubling in the long-term price of oil .
MR. FISHER
In the IT -LSB- information technology -RSB- sector , our sources at Dell , TI , and EDS say that hardware and telecom costs continue downward .
MR. LACKER
Indeed , the Greenbook calls for core CPI inflation to remain anchored at close to 2 percent , and that 's a projection I 'm quite comfortable with .
VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER
I 'm looking at the pass-through into core inflation of the rise in energy prices , import prices , and commodity prices .
MR. STOCKTON
34 , MR. STOCKTON. , '' It is the case , however , Mr. Chairman , that there has been a broad - based upward movement in commodity prices in the last four weeks .
MR. LACKER
Turning to the national picture , the Greenbook 's forecasts for output and its components appear broadly consistent with private forecasters and with what we were hearing from our Fifth District contacts .
MR. LACKER
Such approaches see the supply - side effects of Katrina as minimal and , therefore , interpret most of the decline in output as a shock to aggregate demand .
MR. LACKER
Growth in retail sales moderated in June , as our big ticket sales index contracted slightly after having moved sharply higher in May .
MR. LACKER
Our contacts also expect an upturn in capital spending growth over that period , and price pressures in the District remain contained .
MR. LACKER
And the Greenbook expects real GDP to average above 3 1/2 percent through the end of 2006 , slightly faster than potential .
MR. LACKER
This Greenbook forecasts a 2.2 percent core inflation rate for the first half of ' 06 , less than the last Greenbook , but it still makes me somewhat uncomfortable .
MR. STOCKTON
But we correctly anticipated that this increase would translate into a milder 0.2 percent increase for the market-based core PCE measure .
MR. STOCKTON
-LSB- Laughter -RSB- If I step back and take a more dispassionate look , while recent developments have highlighted reasons for concern , the outlook still remains quite favorable .
MR. KOHN
And the recent downward revisions to market expectations for growth abroad -- and expected policy June 29-30 , 2005 147 of 234 demand .
MS. YELLEN
That is equivalent to saying that the equilibrium real fed funds rate is unusually low -- 1.4 percent in the Greenbook path .
MS. YELLEN
The Greenbook forecast depicts an almost textbook scenario of an economy continuing along the path toward a rather attractive steady state .